Weather Will

It will be interesting to see if the WB 12Z RDPS ends up beating the WB 3K NAM within 24 hours. I am trying to decide whether to turn my water off.... I mean they are more than 5-10 degrees different in multiple places, not just inside the Beltway.

Only model I can see cold enough to support freeze warnings is 6Z RDPS.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 305 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024 MDZ004>006-008-503-505-507-508-VAZ506-261515- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.241028T0600Z-241028T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Sterling, Elkton, Reisterstown, Ballenger Creek, Leesburg, Cockeysville, Eldersburg, Jarrettsville, Lisbon, Ashburn, Damascus, Frederick, Westminster, Aberdeen, and Germantown 305 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Carroll, Frederick MD, Cecil, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, and Southeast Harford Counties. In Virginia, Eastern Loudoun County. * WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. &&

To make Cape happy will post the Thanksgiving snowstorm here....yes I know WB EPS control....but it is interesting that this is the time frame where there may be cold air to tap.

6Z WB GEFS, Halloween looking warm and dry.

As we head into the last full week of October, time sure flies doesn't it, time to start looking into November. Looking at EPS weeklies, looks like temperatures return to near normal by mid/late November, and normal precipitation. Maybe setting us up for a rocking December to remember!!! Showing 30 day maps and last week of November.

WB 12Z EPS... dry weather continues but warmer the rest of the month.

Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years....

38, no frost, as I start my am commute...but the heat feels good in the car!

Light rain falling.

Let's see which model does best with Wed. Am lows. 18Z EURO is warmest. Also shown 18Z GFS and 3K NAM.

Last year reminded me of an important tenet, don't trust any model more than 5 days out....H5, analogs, weeklies, etc. We need three well timed shortwaves with freezing temperatures to make most people happy. We will know how it works out in 5 months. My gut tells me this year may hold a pleasant surprise in these five months, but I would not bet my 401k on it!

WB 12Z EPS. Dry, cool week ahead. Perfect fall weather, although we could use some rain...

If we have a Christmas blizzard I will call it a winter and give it an A+!!!

Out of curiosity I looked at the NWS graphics on the TB office site. Very strange to be saying hurricane conditions possible for tonight???? Tonight Tropical Storm Conditions Expected With Hurricane Conditions Possible Low: 76°F change location

NHC is calling for 18 inches locally: RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.

WB 18Z 3K NAM....scary times in Tampa area.

Hope they stay safe.

Latest from NHC: Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).

WB 6Z EURO AI....catastrophic rains for central Florida with Tampa in the bullseye. If I had loved ones there I would tell them to get out of town.

No dense fog in Brunswick this am.

WB OZ EPS, cool week ahead with tropical moisture in Gulf shunted across Florida and out to sea.

WB EPS weeklies: October looks dry and seasonable. Picture perfect fall weather albeit boring!

WB 12Z models precip. Totals through early Wed.

WB 0Z EPS....after the remnants of Helene get out of here by midweek looks seasonable and dry into mid October.