JakkelWx

Merry Christmas! happy holidays and a merry Reapmas to @WxWatcher007!

It is a scorching 50 degrees outside.

Almost all AO members are positive heading into Jan per latest indices.

@Ji Winter is over. Doubt we see snow until March.

#1st seed BABY! #GoRavens

Lol one of DT Wxrisk's accounts got suspended

If only.

Just saw on another thread that weather.us has a reanalysis for past storms. Now I can go see what the radar looked like on February 5, 2010!

Not sure I like the latest MJO ECMWF forecast. It stays in the COD but moves towards the unfavorable phases. Hopefully just a blip

CFS is extremely cold from halfway through the run to the end of the run. Never seen it so cold on that model for so long. Also...

Hmm I don't really know but when it suddenly flips to a good pattern in 24 hours that's a red flag to me. Can someone reassure me that everything's alright?

Start your free streaming trial on Feb 29th so it doesn't expire until 4 years later

Imby will be without a white Christmas this whole decade. Depressing

Down to 21 degrees already after a high of 29.

Are we actually gonna get a decent snow track for the coastal plain instead of interior or am I going to be watching the rain/snow line 100 miles to my north every storm till March?

Ten years ago today I was shoveling snow wearing only a speedo in my driveway. I'm sure I got some crazy looks from the windows across the street of houses.

Nice 50/50 low pattern setting up on the 6z GEFS. Also has a west based -NAO pretty much the whole run. Too bad the surface is a torch but that looks overdone.

The models only look like that because the MJO has to cycle through the COD, then phases 6 and 7 before getting into the cold phases which likely won't be until the 1st week of Jan which is almost outside of the LR ens range. Eric Webber stated that the ENSO state is progressing towards a west based Nino, or the fabled modoki. Relax guys.

On a more mellow note the dry slot bust of 2016. Was thinking I'd get around 15 inches but only ended up with 14.9. That got me in the feels man.

Ten years to the day. We all know what happened. It was the start of an epic winter.

Been snowing for the past 10 hours here. 2'' per hour rates most of the time. Currently at 0.0'' of snow so far.

So far in terms of 12z runs the storm signal is a shell of its former self vs what it was a few days ago. LR models are showing an improvement late Dec into early Jan with an EPO ridge further east which should dump cold air into the CONUS. But that's really about it. PNA and NAO looks like they go to crap really from the 10 day period out to the end of the run. I don't think a favorable pattern comes till around the 1st week of January or maybe even later. Thankfully the NAO doesn't go to crap until after 10 days so that's a good sign.

It was a fun december. Fun Christmas coming up with t shirts and shorts! Looks like I'm back on the watchlist

Snowflakes falling here, 35/28