JakkelWx

Background state is pretty much way different from last year

41/30 here. I personally don't expect anything more than brief mix then just plain rain.

18z GFS is a partial phase this time for the 22nd storm. High moves out a little too early + it's only a partial phase so its pretty much all rain.

Have to clean the salt off the car very soon or else you will get corrosion. That stuff isn't pretty and comes quick.

Yeah I'm kinda losing confidence on this storm even though it's still 6-7 days away. To add insult to injury the pattern goes to complete garbage right after. I think that even if someone got a foot of snow on the 22nd, it'll all be gone by christmas morning with that kind of pattern. I'm going to go with no snow for me.

At this point or tomorrow it's going to become a battle of the runs. Big storm vs suppression to Venezuela. At this point I favor the southern solution because the euro and other models besides the GFS show a southern slider. Hopefully the NAVGEM is right

GFS run is Dr. No. The only thing that messes the storm up is the PNA ridge out west is flatter this run, and there's hardly any northern stream involvement.

Bold prediction: This winter is going to suck after the white Christmas.

Then I realized that my "waking up" was actually just another dream in a dream. Then I really woke up at 6 AM to find that there's 14'' of snow OTG and the storm is only halfway over. NAVGEM sniffed this thing out from like the 10th of December.

It's December 22nd. Fatties have been ripping for the past 6 hours and visibility is down to a quarter mile. 10 inches of snow and counting, I just recorded a pressure of 996 mb yet the low is down between Cape Hatteras and Norfolk. Blizzard conditions have been present with winds gusting to 55 miles per hour. Temp down to 27/26. Roads and highways are a shell of their former selves. Also we have yet another deathband setting just to my south with 2'' per hour rates. R/s line is 20 miles to my south where its 33 degrees and its quickly dropping south. C.A.P.E just recorded 12 inches not too far away from here and PSU has recorded just over 12'' as well and the meso models were going absolutely bonkers with 30'' lollies into E MD but cut back a little down to 20-25''. Haven't got any sleep since December 19th. Here are the snow totals so far: DCA - 10.7'' IAD - 11.5'' BWI - 12.3'' Bel Air, MD - 11.3'' Reston, VA - 12'' C.A.P.E - 12'' Me - 10.3''

Interestingly enough the QBO has entered the negative phase

NAVGEM is a crusher from Philly to Boston. Feet of snow.

That ULL was real close to becoming a Jan 2016 type deal. Unfortunately it's congrats South Carolina on your white Christmas. Other than that it's a classic setup with just needing a couple tweaks.

Wtf

Can't wait for the epic torch of epic proportions after the HECS on December 22nd. Then it's off to the races on December 25th

Taller PNA ridge out west on the HH GFS edit: Suppression

Euro is in the game! source: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1873-wx-threats-on-the-horizon-5-15-day-outlook-part-2/page/13/#comments

We will most certainly get a HECS on the 22nd. Bank on getting a few feet of snow that will be gone by the 25th!

There isn't one on TT, but there is one on Pivotal. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=850th&rh=2019121318&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Edit: Wrong image

If the euro MJO progression verifies, any warm ups projected on it will probably be muted/transient for the next 2 weeks. Both ens really.

Last of the snow still hanging around in shady areas should be gone in a few.

Looks just like 18z last night's HH run with the z500 vort. Edit: There's a little too much confluence at 210. the vort over eastern canada slides south and would suppress the storm.

Ravens win 42-21. Ten straight wins in a row. Big truss woo woo