JakkelWx

If only.

Just saw on another thread that weather.us has a reanalysis for past storms. Now I can go see what the radar looked like on February 5, 2010!

Not sure I like the latest MJO ECMWF forecast. It stays in the COD but moves towards the unfavorable phases. Hopefully just a blip

CFS is extremely cold from halfway through the run to the end of the run. Never seen it so cold on that model for so long. Also...

Hmm I don't really know but when it suddenly flips to a good pattern in 24 hours that's a red flag to me. Can someone reassure me that everything's alright?

Start your free streaming trial on Feb 29th so it doesn't expire until 4 years later

Imby will be without a white Christmas this whole decade. Depressing

Down to 21 degrees already after a high of 29.

Are we actually gonna get a decent snow track for the coastal plain instead of interior or am I going to be watching the rain/snow line 100 miles to my north every storm till March?

Ten years ago today I was shoveling snow wearing only a speedo in my driveway. I'm sure I got some crazy looks from the windows across the street of houses.

Nice 50/50 low pattern setting up on the 6z GEFS. Also has a west based -NAO pretty much the whole run. Too bad the surface is a torch but that looks overdone.

The models only look like that because the MJO has to cycle through the COD, then phases 6 and 7 before getting into the cold phases which likely won't be until the 1st week of Jan which is almost outside of the LR ens range. Eric Webber stated that the ENSO state is progressing towards a west based Nino, or the fabled modoki. Relax guys.

On a more mellow note the dry slot bust of 2016. Was thinking I'd get around 15 inches but only ended up with 14.9. That got me in the feels man.

Ten years to the day. We all know what happened. It was the start of an epic winter.

Been snowing for the past 10 hours here. 2'' per hour rates most of the time. Currently at 0.0'' of snow so far.

So far in terms of 12z runs the storm signal is a shell of its former self vs what it was a few days ago. LR models are showing an improvement late Dec into early Jan with an EPO ridge further east which should dump cold air into the CONUS. But that's really about it. PNA and NAO looks like they go to crap really from the 10 day period out to the end of the run. I don't think a favorable pattern comes till around the 1st week of January or maybe even later. Thankfully the NAO doesn't go to crap until after 10 days so that's a good sign.

It was a fun december. Fun Christmas coming up with t shirts and shorts! Looks like I'm back on the watchlist

Snowflakes falling here, 35/28

Somebody must have put ice cubes on the superintendent's front porch?

36/26 NAM dries out the precip before the heaviest gets to me. Judging by the current radar I'm not sure I buy it.

Notice where there's a sharp thermal gradient on the 850 map. Right along that boundary is where I think precip initially starts as snow then begins to mix as the 850s gradually move north into tomorrow. I think somebody in N - NE MD will see a few if not several hours of frozen before changeover. At the surface you can see where the difference between dewpoints from the low 20s to the mid-upper 20s right along the Mason dixon line. As the precip moves in, the temperatures will cool down to the lower 30s for a few hours maybe even down to DC. Right now I'm seeing a coating from D.C to around 2 inches just north of the mason dixon line overnight. HRRR and the NAMs look mostly supportive of this idea. I'd like to add that the current radar looks better than currently modeled. I think some sort of a surprise is coming. Areas that are already down to freezing will most likely see several hours of precip. @C.A.P.E. I think we might wake up to a decent surprise in the morning. Maybe a coating in these parts, more to the north.

38/28.

Background state is pretty much way different from last year

41/30 here. I personally don't expect anything more than brief mix then just plain rain.