JakkelWx

Nice 50/50 low pattern setting up on the 6z GEFS. Also has a west based -NAO pretty much the whole run. Too bad the surface is a torch but that looks overdone.

The models only look like that because the MJO has to cycle through the COD, then phases 6 and 7 before getting into the cold phases which likely won't be until the 1st week of Jan which is almost outside of the LR ens range. Eric Webber stated that the ENSO state is progressing towards a west based Nino, or the fabled modoki. Relax guys.

On a more mellow note the dry slot bust of 2016. Was thinking I'd get around 15 inches but only ended up with 14.9. That got me in the feels man.

Ten years to the day. We all know what happened. It was the start of an epic winter.

So far in terms of 12z runs the storm signal is a shell of its former self vs what it was a few days ago. LR models are showing an improvement late Dec into early Jan with an EPO ridge further east which should dump cold air into the CONUS. But that's really about it. PNA and NAO looks like they go to crap really from the 10 day period out to the end of the run. I don't think a favorable pattern comes till around the 1st week of January or maybe even later. Thankfully the NAO doesn't go to crap until after 10 days so that's a good sign.

It was a fun december. Fun Christmas coming up with t shirts and shorts! Looks like I'm back on the watchlist

Somebody must have put ice cubes on the superintendent's front porch?

Background state is pretty much way different from last year

18z GFS is a partial phase this time for the 22nd storm. High moves out a little too early + it's only a partial phase so its pretty much all rain.

Have to clean the salt off the car very soon or else you will get corrosion. That stuff isn't pretty and comes quick.

Yeah I'm kinda losing confidence on this storm even though it's still 6-7 days away. To add insult to injury the pattern goes to complete garbage right after. I think that even if someone got a foot of snow on the 22nd, it'll all be gone by christmas morning with that kind of pattern. I'm going to go with no snow for me.

At this point or tomorrow it's going to become a battle of the runs. Big storm vs suppression to Venezuela. At this point I favor the southern solution because the euro and other models besides the GFS show a southern slider. Hopefully the NAVGEM is right

GFS run is Dr. No. The only thing that messes the storm up is the PNA ridge out west is flatter this run, and there's hardly any northern stream involvement.

Bold prediction: This winter is going to suck after the white Christmas.

Then I realized that my "waking up" was actually just another dream in a dream. Then I really woke up at 6 AM to find that there's 14'' of snow OTG and the storm is only halfway over. NAVGEM sniffed this thing out from like the 10th of December.

It's December 22nd. Fatties have been ripping for the past 6 hours and visibility is down to a quarter mile. 10 inches of snow and counting, I just recorded a pressure of 996 mb yet the low is down between Cape Hatteras and Norfolk. Blizzard conditions have been present with winds gusting to 55 miles per hour. Temp down to 27/26. Roads and highways are a shell of their former selves. Also we have yet another deathband setting just to my south with 2'' per hour rates. R/s line is 20 miles to my south where its 33 degrees and its quickly dropping south. C.A.P.E just recorded 12 inches not too far away from here and PSU has recorded just over 12'' as well and the meso models were going absolutely bonkers with 30'' lollies into E MD but cut back a little down to 20-25''. Haven't got any sleep since December 19th. Here are the snow totals so far: DCA - 10.7'' IAD - 11.5'' BWI - 12.3'' Bel Air, MD - 11.3'' Reston, VA - 12'' C.A.P.E - 12'' Me - 10.3''

Interestingly enough the QBO has entered the negative phase

NAVGEM is a crusher from Philly to Boston. Feet of snow.

That ULL was real close to becoming a Jan 2016 type deal. Unfortunately it's congrats South Carolina on your white Christmas. Other than that it's a classic setup with just needing a couple tweaks.

Wtf

Can't wait for the epic torch of epic proportions after the HECS on December 22nd. Then it's off to the races on December 25th

Taller PNA ridge out west on the HH GFS edit: Suppression

Euro is in the game! source: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1873-wx-threats-on-the-horizon-5-15-day-outlook-part-2/page/13/#comments

We will most certainly get a HECS on the 22nd. Bank on getting a few feet of snow that will be gone by the 25th!