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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    @John1122 you are in for a treat when this push of moisture make it over Cross mt. I don't know if I've ever seen in snow this hard.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    My visibility is down to less than 0.1 miles. Video coming soon
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    That escalated quickly, lol:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I can't get them to work either
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    In a lull right now, but I am VERY eagerly awaiting what the returns to my SW bring me:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sleet and snow up here in Mossy Grove for now, but I could see the snow line dropping down the Frozen Head mts as I drove back in from Harriman. 4-5 degree temp difference between my place and Harriman.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, wrt to the above I realized my circle included Nashville where there could be obs at the 850 level, but I meant my point to be more regarding the area between Nashville and Knoxville.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    @EastKnox I think this is a situation where the mesoscale analysis is a little too course. There can't be any radiosondes giving 850 mb data in the circled area, and I doubt there are any planes flying that low to give obs. I was looking at that area earlier and trying to figure out why there was a jump NW with 850 temps there and the only thing I can figure, is that since that mesoscale analysis uses the RAP, that's just the RAPs best guess, in areas without direct observations. Of course I'm also in full weather weenie wishcast mode, so take that into account, lol.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the dry air is being overcome pretty quickly near Nashville: I'm guessing those bright returns are a sleet and snow mix, but not sure.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like some interstate problems in west TN:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Brilliant sunrise up here on the plateau. I tried to edit it a bit to capture the colors, but no way to do it justice:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Virga might delay onset, but I think they're going to be wrong abut the onset, especially in Morgan county.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    If nothing else IMO this is trending faster onset over the past few runs: Based on that radar, I wouldn't be surprised to have virga or maybe even precip reaching the ground by the 10 o'clock hour
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Radar looks nice to the southwest. Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1 But I think it sometimes renders those parameters pretty coursely
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm using weenie rule 14, subsection 5.6: When your local forecast office doesn't have you in an advisory product, look downstream, use another office's product, and extrapolate: Thursday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 34. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    That being said, I think the 3km NAM actually came north a bit from 6z, lol. And showed a stouter warm nose.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z 12km NAM:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's not finished running yet, but here is the 12z trend:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM looks like it will be a bit south as of hour 26:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a RGEM trend gif if you want to use it for explanation purposes @Carvers Gap
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    On the other hand the HRRR has recently been the one to show me having precip. type issues and after onset, it doesn't think I have those this time.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know I just think the NAM has me spooked. Supposedly it has a knack for sniffing about warm noses/ temp problems : It may not be right, but it is a possible solution. Sometimes surface lows or pieces of them like to ride up into the eastern Great Valley.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry meant to add their map too:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually thinking I would wake up and the I'd be on the rain/snow line for the 6z runs, lol. WPC forecast actually thinks it will be an icy day for us tomorrow, although they don't give any reasoning in their discussion: "By Thursday, a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the arctic front over the Deep South. This low pressure wave is forecast to develop further as it tracks toward the northeast. This will bring an increasing threat of a winter storm from the Tennessee Valley and areas farther northeast on Thursday. The heaviest snow may fall over parts of the Central Appalachians while ice may impact much of Tennessee and northern Mississippi/Alabama."
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