Holston_River_Rambler

In Oak Ridge and it is pouring. I wish I could post the rippin fatties image lol.

Sun came out and I had the heaviest snow of the day lol.

I made a video for someone a few weeks ago: Sorry I apparently recorded my wife talking too, so just mute the video. But it shows you how to insert images through imgur. Basic jist is get you're picture, save it to your desktop, drag it into imgur, then right click "copy image address". Once you have that address copied, you can paste it into Americanwx post and it should automatically pop up as the picture.

Latest NAM gets some virga up this way

We need some obs from eastern KY folks. NWS Jackson is talking dirty about deformation zones, baroclinic leaves, and snow squalls. Might even hit BuCo

Are they rippin' though?

I wonder how Knoxtron is doing? I have a slushy accumulation of less than .10th of an inch, lol. At least some of my old snow in shaded areas got to meet some new.

Latets HRRR has some pretty good returns over the central valley starting between 10 and 11 am and it thinks they will mostly be snow:

Speaking of La Ninas of yore... Might could be a clipper on the Euro and GFS this upcoming Friday? Surely not!?

Models seem to be all over the place long range. We'll have a run that tries to drop a 1050+ arctic high down then another that tries the old La Nina flooding pattern or severe. One thing with this dominant northern stream, is that it is what I would have expected from La Ninas or yore, not the recent constant troughs over the southwest.

One thing that I'm kind of wondering about for Tuesday now is what happened with the last system. If you remember the northern stream system dropped in and suppressed the southern stream and helped develop some snow over the upper midwest and OH Valley: here is a gif of the RGEM for that last system:' Trend has been for this Tuesday for obliterative suppression as the shortwave in the southwest kicks out and a northern stream shortwave drops in, kind of like what happened above, but with the n. stream system getting further south. The above above looks even more suppressive for us now that I look at them both together. But who knows, maybe the n. stream drops far enough to give us some lift. It's all I've got. Seemed like a good idea when I thought of it at 2 am lol. There's a bit of time Tuesday PM where we have moisture from 925 mb up to at least 500 mb.

OHX hoists WWAs for Cumberland and Fentress. 1-2 inches.

For midweek, a lot seems to depend on this little booger off the CA coast: NAM shows less interaction: More precip makes it NW as the second N stream piece drops down out of Canada: RGEM now shows more interaction: since it gets hung up a bit, there is less interaction and so precip is a bit south: Although honestly it's still not too far off.

I think John might just will this into being!

I think we decided to use it for subsequent obs for the arctic air too.

TBH the Euro isn't too far off either if it loses part of the shortwave getting hung up over the (can you guess where?)

I figured you did, but just wanted to make sure everyone saw that insanity. But honestly, the 6z GFS ain't too far off: GFS CMC:

Did everyone actually look at the snow output on the CMC last night for next Tuesday- Wednesday? I know we've been mentioning it, but it is worth a look if you didn't see it. It was insane. 47. point. 7. 4. inch. max.

I'm not ready for a punt yet, but just figured we might get some surprise obs if this Sunday deal over performs.

Sounds good. I'll update it to include that too.

seems like two jets streaks will have some sort of a say over this one:

At least it's something

I think I might throw out a thread for Sunday. I think tnweathernut was suggesting that. At the very least we'll have a discreet place to pop some obs if it over performs.

From just a pure model watching standpoint, it seems like we've had a lot of trouble this winter from models struggling with speed and evolution of shortwaves in the NW flow over western ridges. It happened with the storm last week: The timing, press, number, trajectories, and evolution of these shortwaves is just giving NWP fits, even right up to go time. See above. We have a nice STJ but it just gets squished by those stout shortwaves to the north, more times than not. If one of those can drop down and tap into it it'll have a lot of juice, as some recent model runs have shown, but models just cannot seem to resolve those shortwaves at any sort of range. Kind of a weird, twitchy gif here, but just give it a watch: Notice how between 50 and 100 hours the GFS (just chosen for ease of use on TT) does a pretty good job with the longwave features. Big ridges, big troughs are fairly stable. But now look closer at the individual vorts in those ridges and troughs. They are jumping around a lot. Add that weird cutoff mess off the CA coast and you have model problems with finer details. We often talk about better obs and data from the RAOB network and yeah, we 100% have much better satellite data than at any time in the past, but even with better data (and I don't know if there are other non-public satellites at play here) some of the sat. imagery just isn't as...continuous? over the polar region: It's probably hard to have a sat. in geosynchronous orbit there, to be fair, but that can't be helping resolving shortwaves north of the arctic circle, can it? And you can't tell me that is as crisp and clean and detailed as good old GOES 17, 18, 19, or even the Himawari 9: I'm not advocating for a bust or boom next week here, but offering an explanation for some of the model frustration.