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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think that was as recently as 18-19. We'd had one in late Feb 18 and it had produced a nice -NAO period that helped out the east coast (MA and NE), so we were hopeful that it would have the same result. It happened right as the MJO was in the 4/5/6 phase and just enhanced to bejeebus out of it there lol since it displaced some cooler air to the tropic latitudes in the tropopause. We did get an wave running a front for the "Dayton leeside micro low" event towards the end of January. here is a post from @EastKnox that kind of summed it up, lol: Current EPS depiction for this Jan 24, lol :
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Heck, even the strat is under strain like in late Nov: November gif: 6z this AM: Now, the type of stress the SPV is under here is not the same. There is no -NAO currently helping to displace it, but there are signs of a Scandinavian ridge exerting some pressure later this month: Late November: 6z this AM
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's my "flooding" post from late November for reference
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I swear this is like deja vu for me for this time last month. I start worrying about the flood pattern, then that pattern starts to look more suppressed: Then Jax posts about East Asia. I've included his December post here just to show how eerily similar it is to yesterdays:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z OP GFS looked a little more suppressed with the energy scooting out of the SW. Hopefully that's a nod towards the Euro's progression. edit to specify that I'm talking about days 7+ pattern evolution
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ended up with about 1" here. Exceeded expectations for MBY!
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I seriously just thought about you when I looked out at my deck. I thought, I bet John has 2 -3" based on my current 1/4 inch, lol.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's what I'm hoping too.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's eventually heading back that way for sure, but if we get a trough dump in the west hopefully we can keep a -EPO and at least keep some cold in play in Canada this time. I guess once it cycles back to 4-5-6, we hope it doesn't do that extra long Pac jet extension and just wipe out all -ve temp anomalies on our continent again.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    There have been a couple of OP GFS long range runs that have shown a semi split over the past couple of days, but that's about it so far. One oft he frames in Jax's gif shows one of those runs.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we can avoid Canada dumping all its cold at once this time and the Canucks will dole it out one 1038 HP at a time.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's awesome! Still rain here. You're above 2000' now, if I remember correctly?
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BackpackingWeather Here is a photo of one of the more photogenic drifts on the AT near Cammerer : And this is at a pretty low elevation on the trail up to the AT from Cosby: https://i.imgur.com/LRLnICP.mp4
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    And when I say "early" I mean within 3 hours of it starting.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BackpackingWeather Here is a video I took several years ago at approx this location on Bullhead Trail: This was pretty early in to a NW flow event at about 5700 feet. The video is only in SD, so it doesn't do the conditions justice. The wind was gnarly. I've seen hip high drifts (3.5') on the AT near Mt Cammerer after one of these events.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    How many rounds of thunder and rain did the TN Valley have today? 3?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's been some strat can kicking, but I'd say we're still under a Strat watch:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    And there it is. First negative SOI reading since (I think) November
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    that is hands down the best LeConte/ Clingman's NAMing I've ever seen
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    A more realistic total for LeConte, just to keep my posts in reality might be 6-12 on that NAM run
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh Lawd it was a Le Conte NAMing at 18z
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    TBH I wouldn't be surprised if this (upcoming uplsope) is a situation where one of those vorts almost looks like a clipper with its precip heading down from the NW
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Winter Storm Watch for the TN border counties higher elevations. \ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-121000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.230113T0500Z-230114T1200Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi- Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico, and Coker Creek 311 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible with locally higher totals possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Mountains of East Tennessee, generally at or above 2500 feet elevation. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kind of in a waiting for test and test results situation right now so thought I’d kill some time with what looks like a hopefully a good upslope set up. Hopefully that write up pans out lol.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I also like about this upslope is that the vorts rotating through seems to be positioned in just the right way to accentuate the Lake Michigan feed. The red arrows are vort lobes rotating in and the blue arrow is the fetch off lake Michigan. I'm not sure if it works the same way as a jet or not, but that should put places from the Smokies north in the left exit region of the vort max and help maximize not only the orographic lift but the PVA as well. There is a 500 wind max over east central MS as well: but that may be too far away to help much, The above were from the 12z 3km NAM just for resolution purposes. Euro has the two vort maxes too, just at a lower resolution.
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