Holston_River_Rambler

Quite an evolution:

33 in Oak Ridge when I took a quick drive in, 32 still here in southern Morgan County with icicles on some trees. No road issues for me.

Got some sleet mixd in now too.

Finally got the higher returns overhead and it is just Freezing Rain.

Little bit of drizzle here, but better radar echoes just to my west.

Looks like the convection in the MC is finally starting to quiet down, with a pretty large convective system in Polynesia: It's been so bad we've almost retrograded to 6 on the RMMs:

6z Euro more suppressed than 0z: 6z GFS hopped back into the cutting camp at 6z: Side-by-side comparison at H5:

Looks (not saying it will for sure) to me like the RGEM is about to get a good whooping at the hands of the NAM. System hasn't really started IMBY yet though so we'll see. As of the 6z run RGEM thought we'd all be in the lower 20s to teens and most everyone is at most in the upper 20s. 3km NAM is much more realistic wrt temps. The system itself seems to be a bit north of what the RGEM predicted as well. 3km NAM does still try to show that pocket if ZR in Anderson and Campbell counties though. I don't really like freezing rain all that much, so I guess I can't complain too much. It kind of hurt to type the above, the RGEM's my best little friend.

https://weatherworksinc.com/news/Miller-A-vs-Miller-B

By the KU playbook, yes.

18z RGEM gives Kingsport 2” of snow tomorrow am. Somewhat lessened ice amounts

Here is the surface: and 500 mb

Here is the snow footprint for those who want it: some icing south of I-40 too

Euro is cutting the first blob of precip, but not quite as dramatically as the GFS .

Looks like the ULL is kicking out eastward a bit quicker vs 6z on the Euro.

GEFS: Not much support for the warmer solution, dry and suppressed seems more of a concern wrt this run.

Either way on to the Euro. Will it kick out the ULL this time? Will it retrograde it to Hawaii? Will a great elk ride from the north with banners of snow and trumpets of ice? Will a metal snowman rampage across TN? What will the wooly worms say to these developments should they bear fruit?

IDK that time it tried to produce for us that run: we do change over to rain with the initial precip, by by hour 174 with that shortwave rolling in precip builds back into E TN and SW VA

Interesting new development though on the 12z GFS: a shortwave dives into the bigger upper low kicking out and tries to throw some more moisture back over the cold.

Oliver Springs may be one bullseye for this. I drive from Morgan County to Norris quite a bit and there seems to be a sink for cold there. Another would be from Rocky Top Lake City to Caryville. Notice below that there is alos a small area for the cold to get locked in to Dutch Valley Here is a topography map of the areas in involved: The top arrow shows a gap where the cold could funnel in and the other two arrows point at Dutch Valley. I'd love to go around tomorrow afternoon and check these places out, but I also don't want to die doing it, lol.

Latest watches and warnings: Sorry its blurry, I didn't want to go to each CWA to get individual pics.

6z Euro also looks like it is bringing the whole shaboozle out of the SW: Also, a big thank you to Runman for starting a thread for the ice potential tomorrow!

Thought I'd take a peek at the HREF ensemble this AM: Here are the models that go into that mean: RGEM still insists that there will be a pocket of freezing rain in the central east TN valley, banked up against the mountains on the central plateau. 3km NAM kinda tries to do the same thing: but it is ultimately a bit slower, so I suppose it allows for more insolation? And of course the NBM is the most optimistic, if you don't want any ice. The other thing I am curious about with this system is the snow most models show some as the shortwave is forced southeast over NE TN as well as some possible front end snow. It just seems like you will sometimes get like 10 minutes of nice snow just as the precip. moves in.

Some 42 dbz returns east of Nickelsville!