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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Toasty 850s Sunday PM
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Damn! It changes east TN over to rain:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro is disgusting. Brings rain into the lower plateau glacier load of ice
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tomer Burg now has made a snow anxiety index (sarcasm on my part) available. This is a gif of the 12z EPS run Here is his explanation of what it is:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Easier to see the LP trying to sneak up Highway 411 here: 18z-------------------------------------------------------------> 12z 850s:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    best image I have now, but the 850s have gone north by a county or so:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Don't have a whole lot of frames yet, but it looks like Euro AIFS has ticked back north a bit.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the GEFS upped .qpf, but strengthened the HP and kept 850 temps relatively similar: Actually having zoomed in, there is a bit of a northward tick with 850s:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of Mammoth... the hurricane hunters flight planned mentioned........
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Since I've already got imgur pulled up, here y'all go:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I've noticed recently (and someone may have beat me to it in this thread) is that as the initial arctic high slides east and bananas out, another stout one is sliding in to supplement.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    As far as I know I can share: 12z para CMC: 12z on the right -------> 0z on the left:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the para CMC jumped about 200 miles south with its snow line since 0z. 40 north now instead of central KY
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was hesitant to mention it, but there were also sightings of the elk this fall at an even lower elevation than the last time we saw it nearby. I myself did not see it, so I’m not sure if it counts.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z EPS MSLPs: 12z EPS 850s: 12z EPS qpf: 12z EPS snow mean: 12z EPS ice: H5 trend with the Baja low:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hurricane hunters dropsondes planned:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Could be wrong, but I suspect the GFS is going to bring it out in two waves on this run
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Did anyone see the NAM give east TN an appetizer Friday am? Had to zoom out to get the 1055 high in, lol
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    hot dawg, a non zero probability
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight WPC probabilities: Pertinent parts of the overnight WPC disco: Model guidance generally remains in good agreement with the large scale pattern. All model guidance shows arctic air making it down to the Gulf and East Coasts, which will clash with southern stream energy to produce a high impact winter storm across the southern tier. However, some model differences still exist with the details of both the southern and northern stream energy. These details will impact things such as the timing, snow/ice line, and the northern gradient of the snowfall. While these details will need to be worked out over the coming days, it seems almost certain that a significant winter storm will occur. The 12z/18z GFS runs from yesterday were extreme outliers with a much slower and even cutoff southern stream energy near CA. The 00z GFS has since come into better agreement with the other models, but given it appears to just be catching on to things, we still prefer to only give it a little weight in this forecast. Otherwise taking a blend of the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET, the ECENS/GEFS and the AI model suite, seemingly results in a pretty good middle ground forecast at this point and is reflected in the WPC QPF forecast. On the southern side of this system significant freezing rain is expected, likely resulting in dangerous travel conditions and power outages. Given the arctic airmass in place, temperatures will likely only be in the teens and 20s where freezing rain is occurring, which will only act to increase travel impacts. The exact swath of ice will a bit uncertain until we get closer to the event...but currently the highest probabilities stretch from portions of central TX into the lower MS Valley and into portions of SC/NC. To the north of this icing threat will be a swath of significant snowfall stretching from OK into the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Again, we will need to fine tune the northern and southern gradients of this snow, and also the exact magnitudes...but a rather wide swath of significant snowfall is likely. Temperatures in the teens and 20s will increase travel impacts from this snow and also result in snow ratios likely higher than climatology. This should result in higher snowfall totals than applying a simple 10-1 ratio to QPF would give you...especially on the northern half of the snowfall axis.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kuchera:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro is a tick south from 0z, still some mixing issues for southern valley though
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro surface pressure trend: If we just end up with that little lp blob over the Snokies turning into a leeside low......
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z normal Euro still dropping a 1054 hp south and it is a tick further south than 0z
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