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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    By "this storm" I mean how the current one was forecast at range
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Along those lines, and maybe I'm misremembering, I feel like this storm got booted out of the SW quicker than the Euro originally wanted it to. Looking at the overnight Euro, if you get that shortwave to roll east a little faster, and the northern stream verifies a little faster then you get something more akin to the GFS solution.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, GFS looked even better at 0z. It's just so different from the Euro. Maybe they upgraded the GFS again, but something feels wonky these past 24 hours with it. More than usual. Or maybe instead of a rug pull, everything flips randomly to good for once this year.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    For future reference, the variety of NWS products issued as of 0z 2/7/20:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oliver Springs area:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Satellite looks about like it has been, maybe even worse in the 5/6 regions, but there was also a big flare up over S. Africa this afternoon, but not sure if that is a normal diurnal thing there: No big changes to how Euro or GFS see the SPV from 0z, so no help there.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro MJO forecast did take a step toward the GFS suite. Not a big one, but it does gain some amplitude in 5 and 6 before crashing, instead of hanging out in the COD forever. maybe that's it? Not sure though.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lest there be any confusion, what I was trying to say was that despite the 500mb look, still chilly at the surface and 850s. If that cutoff gets kicked out quicker, maybe a ridge would pop in the west on the Euro.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indeed it does. HP in the lakes, looks nippy and no more 13" rain totals, lol:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seems like recently, the reality of the speed of the flow has been kicking energy out of the SW a little better than the Euro says
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro looks like it is trying to get it done. Nice AO vibes, but Euro does the old dump the energy in the W. At least there seems to be more often than not lower heights in the Aleutians and the ridging occasionally makes it to western Canada.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    wow. was wondering how things were down your way, looks like y'all still getting hammered
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Start a thread for this one, or no?
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET kind to plateau at elevation and E KY at 12z:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    When I was up there a guy told me to look at it, but recommended I not do it today, lol. I didn't even know there was a tunnel until today. Here is the picnic area: Random tree floating down:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Probably a good bet to expect stuff to go wrong, given how things have been this year, sadly, not even sure I will do well. @Kentucky looks pretty good and as of now and I will say that just went outside and the temp has started to drop, rain has ended and the wind is howling in the trees. Big difference in only 30 minutes when I got back from my ramble out to the Obed.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oliver Springs area between OS and Oak Ridge:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    This one almost meets the definition of a bomb cyclone according to the NAM and RGEM, goes from 993 to 969 in 20 hours. Should be a dynamic system.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Obed Flooding at the confluence of the little Emory: Judge Branch coming off of Frozen Head: Highway 62 at the Emory River:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    3km NAM looks fun for the duration of its run: Keep in mind, some of the snow early on is not the normal wrap around upslope, it is driven by an upper low and the strengthening surface low to the lee of the Apps.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hearing reports that parts of Highway 27 in Roane/ Morgan county are under water now.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Indeed. as always credit to @PowellVolz for bringing this, the greatest of all gifs, to my attention. Also, feel free to deny everything if I get in trouble for this, lol.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    At second glance Euro actually looks close to cluster 4 at day 10, so I guess me might be closer than we think. But we gotta remember how bad this base state has been this year too. Doesn't mean it can't change, but whatever can go wrong at range this year, usually has.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Judah Cohen, despite all his hype and attempts to use twitter for a variety of ends, shared some research yesterday that is helpful: The projected displacement puts us in cluster 2 and at least gets us close to cluster 4 which would be ideal. I'd like to see all this within like 3 days at this point, but all models are at least consistent showing that it will get displaced our way. That seems more reasonable than a split with how strong this SPV has been and probably the best we can hope for. No clue how quick it would respond for us, even if we get the best case scenario, but at least the cold air is on our side of the globe for once at high latitudes, so we could be getting a lot worse looks at long range right now. Even the cluster 2 and EPS over night look zonal and would get us out of this flood pattern.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Downtown Sunbright from 8 hours ago. from Morgan County today facebook page:
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