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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight ensembles in the fantasy range still look like they want to quickly sweep the trough out of the southwest, and they start to make the Pac look more favorable (GEPS least of the three though): GEPS: GEFS: EPS: In loftier realms, the strat. continues to stratify. Nothing too dramatic, but still interesting: The split at 50mb looks like it is going briefly to happen: But the last image in the above, shows it at 10mb. Still pretty wound up. The temperature maps at 10mb are more interesting to me this AM: You can see some warming over the pole, but cooler temps look to be trying to wrap back in. One thing that I don't remember noticing before is warming over the North Atlantic. As long as I've been making these strat. gifs (admittedly not very long) the heat flux for warming attempts all have come from Asia and the Bering Sea. It could be that the ever elusive -NAO, which I haven't seen materialize as long as I've been active on weatherboards, is having an effect too this year. There does seem to be some connection between the geographic location of the heat fluxes and the -AO and -NAO. I have absolutely no idea if I'm reading this correctly, but it looks to me like the two feed into one another. Reading the above gif like a graph, where the map at the botton is one axis and the hPa heights on the lefty are the other, look above Baffin Island/ Bay it almost looks like the heating that extends down from 1 hPa, to close to 50 hPa is tied to the cooling to its left, cooling that is in part an attempt to balance the larger area of heating above Siberia on the map, and extending down to about 50 hPa too. Now go back and look at the temps on the Euro's depiction of the SPV at 10 mb above, see how the warmer areas correspond. I'm hoping that there is some kind of precarious balance in this inbalance that can at least keep the SPV from dominating this winter. Further south Maritime Continent convection looks sort of healthy, but a lot of it is south of the equator, which, I believe should mute its impact. Hopefully that batch north of the equator, between 160 and 170 (with a little trailing back to 190) degrees longitude can kick it up a notch and help us out. There is some convection over the Eastern Indian Ocean that does appear to be adding some...not sure what the right word here is... momentum? maybe... to the N. Hemishpere's flow: You can also see that in this chart: You can see the bigger wave over N. Australia, just SE Darwin, and that is likely why the SOI (determined from looking at the differences between the MSLP between Darwin and Tahiti (look at all the sinking air there) is ~15 today. But again, all that OLR near Darwin is S. of the equator, so notice the arrows indicating divergent winds, all aimed S or SE. Looking at the MJO this way, you can see why it's in the COD. Conflicting, and weak, signals. Still happy with Ventrice's projections, which would show it getting more into the W. Pacific.:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Carver's, I'm gonna have to cancel weathermodels and get weatherbell, gotta have access to Bastardi's proprietary snow algorithms for more hope, lol . I bet that mix above was all snow on weatherbell.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kinda diggin' that the Euro is digging the energy for the second storm even more than 12z, at 18z: Further south and a stronger high press seems to have been the trend with that one lately, though not sure how long that will continue.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the 12z EPS for you NE TN and SW VA folks. I hope it hits y'all with a good one!
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    CPC has a new (at least to me) interactive MJO site that lets you see lagged composites from each phase for 3 month periods throughout the year: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX giving us some hope this AM @John1122 "Midlevel frontogenesis ramps up between 06Z and 12Z, and QPF during this time frame are expected to be in the half to one inch range. The tricky part is how quickly temperatures will fall. The models may be underestimating the cooling that may ensue as the frontogenesis ramps up, so the forecast will knock down NBM temps a little Sunday night. This will put snow in the mountains of East TN, SW VA, and parts of the northern Cumberland Plateau. If the cooling occurs even faster, then there could be a potential for significant snow amounts in the mountains, but confidence remains low at this time." verbatim the RGEM has some very heavy precip from that forcing: Forcing: Precip: If I had a vehicle that could handle the drive in a big snow, I'd be thinking about chasing to High Knob for this one.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro, oh Lawd:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    In the interests of dom (and because I saw it on the MA forum and it gave me the idea), I thought I'd look at the EPS MSLPs for the second system. More Miller Aish look. Still no guarantees it's not a rainer for people outside elevation (2500 ft. +) or SWVA and TRI, but, the more the low tracks S and E, the better for me.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap I like weatherbell, now lol. Those surface maps look better than what I saw at weathermodels. They had a low in Kentucky for the second system, near Louisville, transferring to the coast.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    It has that wicked Miller B look to the setup. No bueno for me, but hopefully better for y'all up that way.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm starting to become even more bearish than Jeff for the plateau, for the Monday deal: Even though it is coming through overnight, and even though as Carver's mentions its a great low track, it's a rainer. Hopefully the energy can get a tad more wound up and pull a wee bit more cold in. Otherwise, it might just end up being a 3000 ft + event.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap In terms of the strat, there is definitely a solid attack at it's base (look at the top of Greenland, it almost totally breaks at the bottom there) : there's just not a lot going on above that. Most models show (still this AM) it getting split at 50 mb, and the main lobe dropping in over Hudson's Bay and then trying to reconsolidate, at that pressure level. At the top though, it stays pretty stout throughout, even if it is pushed around a bit. Here's the overnight Euro OP at 10 mb:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z RGEM looks tasty at it's end: If it can dig a little more and separate from that N. Stream, piece it is in sync with, it would help. Otherwise it might get squished. I think if we can get a healthy vort rolling along I - 20, it may surprise with it's precip shield. But look at how differently the energy is still being handled: 6z GFS, southern stream looks similar, but a totally different depiction of the N. energy from the RGEM: 0z Euro looks more like the RGEM: and the 6z NAM just looks like as mess: Agree with y'all overnight and I think everything from the high end of Tellico's call above, to Blunderstorm's weak slider are still on the table this AM and the 0z EPS city charts show that for most areas in our forum.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    The aurora could be visible at some of our latitudes according to this site: https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast You have to set it to Dec. 10 though and choose North America as the region to see the visibility line at the I 40 latitude.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've seen fantasy Greenland blocks before, but don't think I've ever abv. normal heights over Greenland one for almost an entire run.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is our disturbance, about to swing ashore in BC. Looks healthy. We'll see if the Rockies are kind to it:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 18z RGEM looks more 0z Euroish now: Yeah it's a meso model at the end of its run, but hey, it's happy hour.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I kinda feel like, anemic as happy hour GFS OP was, that was the best look it has had so far: (Using COD for maximal snowage)
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC looks like a compromise favoring the GFS. Still some precip, but the energy is not nearly as wound up.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sometimes @Carvers Gap, regarding the model changes over the past week, I really do wonder how much it has to do with how they initialize tropical convection: Last week over the MC: This AM: a lot of the MC convection. is south of the equator. although there is more over the Indian Ocean
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's wild @TellicoWx Even most GEFS members don't have much, though some have the wave. I can't tell if the new GEFS is more favorable than the old one (still available on COD: 6z Old GEFS: New GEFS:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I really like the conversational tone of the writer who does BNA's AFD (Not a jab at other AFDs, I like em all) " I think what will be of more interest to everyone is what`s on the backside of Saturday`s system. As of right now, the white stuff is a possibility Sunday night in both of our major models. However, the euro is drastically different in evolution compared to the GFS. In fact, if the euro verifies, portions of Middle TN could see plenty of the white stuff. No, no, no. I`m not biting yet. The last several euro runs have been much different from one another and without a better sense of consistency, I`m just going to keep a chance PoP in for Sunday night`s potential wintry stuff. We`re cool and dry to start off next week, so for now, this weekend system will be the only one to deal with over the next 7 days."
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think every model, except the GFS and GFS parallel, has some sort of wave riding the front laid down after this weekend's storm (even if they are no where near as amped as the Euro). Even the NAVGEM (God love it's little soul) Isn't there some ancient lore about if the (supposedly) progressive NAVGEM has a storm...
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh Lawd, I forgot Knoxville: The control looked a little more like yesterday's run, so that's why some of the eastern areas miss out on that member.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, I thought for sure that was an oddball Euro run yesterday, lol. Some EPS support though (no particular order and including the 0z Mean; sorry for the speed, but giphy limited me to 1.2 seconds per frame because of the image #):
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