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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro has come east some at 12z, but not enough. Surface low runs right up I 75 in the eastern valley.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z EPS MSLPs are a little(and I mean a tad) further south, but still a pretty tight wad of 'em around TN: 6z: 0z
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro doesn't quite out as far as we would like, but it does look east of 0z run: 6z: 0z: Southern stream energy was more open and the N stream can bully it more easterly
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the GEFS member lows for comparison to the EPS above:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sorry got a little carried away with gifs on that one and forgot to add that the EPS has jumped west some, but is not as far west as the OP. This close to the day of, it may be expected that the ensembles, run off the west OP, would jump some.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Euro jumped west again. Looks a lot like the UKMET has for the past couple of days. 6z GFS now looks more like the Euro did yesterday. The UKMET, which has been pretty steady the past few days with a cutter over Nashville has now, you guessed it, become the most easterly of the OPs with its depiction of the surface low (shown below for dramatic effect, lol) The UKMET has the northern stream system is slower, so the cold air is late to the party Not sure how the UKMET does when streams cross though.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Success!!!!! I must not have read what you said carefully enough, lol. Sorry!!! I've been trying to figure this out for a while.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    It may be because I'm making them hidden posts. I had somebody try to preach to me about titles on Imgur when I uploaded a storm pic publicly once and decided I didn't care enough after that to make them public. I will try it again though, to see if it lets me link them. In terms of obs. coming back up onto the plateau the fog rolled in and was thick in places. And Kingsport still has a lot more leaves than we do here. I even saw a tree in the N slope of Bays Mt that still looked like it was a pale green.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I tried that stovepipe with the following link but it wouldn’t allow this link: https://imgur.com/a/fAAIbyn
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another good sunset this PM Powell. Driving through Powell and Claxton towards home. I do t have tapatalk. I should probably get it if it helps with pics. https://imgur.com/a/zIedxHD
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Precip and 850 temps too nice not to share too sorry for multiple posts but trying to do all this from my phone now
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS still looking good and even a little east of the OP
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I saw that MRX overnight mentioned the WPC and hadn't looked at their maps yet: not unhappy with that look 5 days out.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS mean looks more like the OP overnight: A question I have looking at this mean, is will the Surface Low try to jump to or at least toward the coast? I don't really understand the dynamic between a surface low and its upper level support. Sure, give me a normal shortwave on satellite and I think I could ball park where the surface reflection would show up, but this seems like it will be a unique lil beastie. I have a gif saved of a storm whose 500mb vorticity evolution reminds me of this one, but I won't say it out loud. The energy looked stronger with that one and it all came together further south. The 6z GEFS is still a west of the Euro, but seems to be getting a little closer to its solution, especially in the means as the storm develops and heads NE:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Queen City posted this in the SE forum, but here are the EPS member surface lows over the course of the potential storm: It's hard to see, on my gif, but there are quite a few ~1000 mb and some sub 1000 mb lows to out SE on the 12z run. NAVGEM is, well, the NAVGEM, but it seems to show a compromise like the EPS mean: It really wants to cut, badly, but that N stream energy bullies it S and E and it turns into an inland runner. 18z GEFS is further east than the OP, likely it is splitting the difference between the two camps: And there are some members that cut the 500 mb energy off SE of us or at least push it east of us as the N stream energy rushes in and phases. I think a lot is going to depend on the speed and timing of the N stream energy as to how much latitude the S stream energy can gain before it passes our longitude. I think the N. Stream energy is over Kamchatka or Mongolia now.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS means: MSLP: 500mb: 850 temps: precip: whether any of this plays out or not, that was a pretty 12z EPS run
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie is almost there, but further W in its evolution (my access only goes out to 144 hrs)
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    After the Nov 30 - Dec 1 storm, the 12z GEFS haz a confuzelment regarding the cut off that the op has now lost:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'd also add that the EPS has a healthy number of members that see both windows (Nov 30 - Dec 1 and Dec 4 - 6), but many of those members see ways to make both or at least one storm, mostly rain. Still, one of the most interesting patterns I've seen since I've been on Americanwx. After the past couple of years, hard not to expect it all to disappear as we get within a few days.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    John covered the Nov 30 - Dec 1 storm, so I'm gonna look at the pattern after that for the oddball cutoff. Looks like the Euro is also trying to do that big ridge bridge at the end of its run: so it's op would probably support, after day 10, a similar cut off solution to what the GFS has been showing for a few days (yesterday's 18z run shown here, by popular request): Even the smoothed EPS mean has a pretty strong signal for over-the-top ridging:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    "Eall is earfoðlic eorþan rice, onwendeð wyrda gesceaft weoruld under heofonum." --Summary of model roulette. This is what happens when there are happy hour weenie runs and I have to replace plumbing all day. Lol.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    That is a beast of a storm the Euro is advertising in John's post above. Surface Pressure drops a little over 20 mb in 24 hours and our temps would really crash as the front came through. Even though it doesn't bomb out in a location to give us a ton of snow, I would love to watch it develop if it came it pass in the way the Euro shows. It would look at feel very wintery and just be fun to track. It looks like four pieces of energy ultimately phase over the course of several days: Each piece, as it rotates through, would produce some upslope enhancement for the typical areas. EPS members aren't loading on weathermodels, so I can't see how enthusiastic or not the members are. I wouldn't say the GEFS members are wildly supportive of the Euro's solution, but there are some similar hits. Timing seems to be the key, as it usually is with these big phasing storms, when the models see them 8 - 10 days out. But, here is a mean of the 3 major ensembles, GEFS, EPS, and GEPS: all show a ridge building in that time period across the Rockies, which would allow energy to drop in and pool somewhere in the OH Valley and/ or Great Lakes, it just a question of whether or not the pieces of energy catch each other and where they do that. Overnight Canadian model shows what could happen if all the timing is off.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting analysis of the NAO for TN:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS sees a window for eastern forum areas around Dec 1: GEFS has some southern lows too, at that time (sorry couldn't find its city charts on Weathermodels) I would still rate it at something like a 10% or less chance, but it is a window, at least for now. EDIT to add that I think this is the window John was talking about last night.
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