Holston_River_Rambler

GFS just janet janeted East TN pretty good.

I think me and Carver were thinking along the same lines, lol.

I think it is also important to acknowledge that we are smack in the middle of a the worst of what the MJO can do right now. Straight up 5/6. It does seem to want to continue east though. I think the fact that it didn't just sit, centered over Java is one reason the SSWE/ split has pooped out. Not sure that I care too much about that, since so much can go wrong with SSWEs. Seems pretty similar to last time. MJO gets hung up in the area above, then slowly starts to amble eastward. I don't have the the Euro verification handym but at least the GFS has been biased to a weaker pass: I was actually thinking it might be slower than it, so I guess that's a positive.

janet janet

12z AIFS looks like it is coming back south to be like the GFS/ CMC.

Here are the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS members: GEFS: EPS:

That was an epic run, lol. Backed off at 6z, but still has the same players. Interestingly it seems to have started to back the progression of the AIFS from 24 hours ago and now 0z, if not the details: Front slides in around this Wed. Pushes through over the weekend after a few impulses ride it then this: 24 hour qpf panels:

Thundersnow reports in Seattle.

Pretty fun to watch the color flip from the equatorial perspective:

GFS just threw out a new one at 12z: That's a double warming, first from east Asia and the then the Atlantic. I've never seen a model throw a double out. Just one OP run, but I guess that's a possibility on the table now too lol.

0z AIFS looks good again as well. Might poke around ensemble member charts later.

Intense thunder and lightning overnight. Is there a folklore sign for patches of snow, bugs out, and intense thunder and vivid lightning? Please don't reply SPRING, lol.

Euro, GFS, and GEFS all have a strat split starting between 10 - 12 days now. The only reason I don't list the EPS on there is I don't see it on weatherbell. It looks like the sort of split that if it happens, will take 3 weeks to bring the cold here. The only caveat I can think of is that we have not had one of these in the sort of base state we've had this winter, so it may have impacts sooner, if it happens. Probably not much more speculation is worthit right now, until we see if it starts to look more likely to happen.

Something to ponder this AM on this Jan 30. I would honestly be a little concerned if I lived in a sheltered valley on the plateau that was in the mid twenties right now as the precip moves in with clouds overhead. A little ice goes a log way

12z. AIFS, one potential out of many:

The Emory was still frozen over at Harriman on Monday. Still quite a bit of ice on Bitter Creek next to Hwy 27 in southern Morgan county.

I’d love to be able to fly a drone up to about 4000 feet right now to see what the profile looks like. I’m surprised that I’m down to 38-40 degrees around my neighborhood.

MRX hoists some SWSs for east TN

Outside of the typically favored areas I have some temp concerns: and clouds are moving in or already overhead:

Bored this PM so I thought I'd try my hand at a snow map

Overnight ensembles still look good for 2-4" over the TN Valley with less in extreme NE TN and more towards N. Mississippi. 2-4 is probably a good range for 15 days or so for drought relief and no flooding.

0z Euro shows a possible way to score at the end of its run. Successive waves push the boundary further south. Something we've been talking about as well as seen before when the Pac is less than favorable. I don't really even know what the 6z GFS was on. Looking at the precip panels I thought it must have been trying to build a big NAO, since systems tried to cut and got shunted SE: There's sort of a consistent 50/50, but most of the big blocking is in the PAC Further afield, the Indian Ocean is lit up. In fact everything from 3-6 in the RMM plots look healthy and I suspect that's why the RMM plots are killing the signal into the COD. Having so much in each section kind of balances everything out: Might be good if that strong of a signal with convection on both sides of the equator can make it around for another pass into 8-1. I still think it is at least 3 weeks before what is no south of Sri Lanka makes it anywhere close to being favorable for us. Up north, a lil split, a lil warming on the Euro: GFS has more warming but nothing like the Euro's split above. The old yin - yang pattern: Not so much reflected in height anomalies: Seems to have some connection to the blocking over the Aleutians: Waaaayyyy out there, but something to watch. Sometimes in La Ninas lately we've seen MC convection enhance Central Pac blocking and help with a strat split/ warming. If we could get one around Feb 20 or so it might not screw us over too much, especially with a N hemisphere base state this winter that leans cold over N America. Here's another visualization of the GFS temp anomalies above, paired with ye olden 200 mb divergent winds: 200 mb divergent winds show where there is upper level divergence and thus lift/ t-storms associated with the MJO. In fact and TBH, I don't really know what a CHI anomaly is, I just call the right hand chart above the MJO forecast chart. While I'm trying to wake up let's see if we have any mountain torques too, cause why not. GFS tries to drop a Siberian high down into East China towards the end of its run, but ehhh that's about it.

How are we feeling about this Sunday night critter? I know we've kind of talked around it, but there have been some developments: RGEM: NAM HRRR and RAP have it too, but zi can't make a gif. Overperformer? MRX going with an inch or two above 3000 feet. Time of day (overnight looks good). Will John get at least an inch? Might be good for Bristol and JC too?

2-4" qpf looking likely over the next two weeks according to ensemble spreads over the TN Valley, with some OP runs throwing out high numbers wherever the firehose sets up.

Saw some ice floating down the Holston today in Kingsport: