My silliness aside, like some of you have said, there is still upside to even that run (it could trend better) and downside or it could trend much worse (viz. Euro)
I think it’s just a matter of which s/w the focus is on. The first one is trending more weak sauce. But the second one is trending deeper and slower, at least so far.
18z EPC control dug and slowed the trailing shortwave a lot more:
18z control on the left, 12z OP on right
Doesn't quite go out far enough, but I suspect that was about to be a nice Miller A.
Cross polar flow and a big low spinning in the west Pac off the coast of Mexico. Snow in Louisiana:
Obviously out in la la land but that would be something to see.