Holston_River_Rambler

Winds are cranking up here on the plateau. Cold air rushing in.

Interesting features to the lee of Black Mt. KY and High Knob, VA earlier this AM:

I should also at least own up to the fact that the strat kind of flopped: It tried and failed. Also, I don't really understand how all the east Asia correlation stuff works, but shouldn't this be a good look for us by around March 10- 15?

If only we could get this with some cold: But at least they are running the Barkely ultra marathon at Frozen Head in it!

@John1122

Pretty wild weather swings from Kingsport to Morgan county: This: and this (Eastman bubble): To this, and 55 degrees:

Looks like it has finally made it to the valley floor. Going to try and bring it back to Morgan county lol

Something I have truly missed about living in Kingsport, and I'm not being sarcastic, is being able to see it absolutely ripping snow up on Bays Mt, with Rain/ snow mix just around 1000' feet lower. Don't know if this one will work or not, but I can actually see the snow above my head, but most of it is melting before it hits my elevation ~1300 feet Probably looks like static to most in this lo res gif, but if you have good eyes you may be able to see. A few flakes bade it down, but a wall of snow about 500' up

Starting to snow pretty good in west Kingsport now

Currently in the box area, looking NNW:

Already got some flurries in Kingsport.

When I wake up at 2am tomorrow morning to ponder how I can concoct baseless myths and empirically vapid one liners to post on American Weather, as is my custom, I'll be sure to provide more data for future posts. If I had known someone was going to come in here and accuse me of being part of some myth promulgation, I would have been more specific and offered an empirically sound and data driven assessment of the entire TN Valley watershed's 2m temperatures. A mausoleum must be more lively than in the other sub forums right now.

I think we warmed up for a while from around just after Christmas through mid January. Torch weenies kept predicting a big torch, but it was just average or a little abv. average.

Looking at the tropical West Pacific this am and noticed we just have a tropical storm hitting the Philippines in February with a less organized twin storm over western Australia's coast. This sort of set up seems to associated with westerly wind bursts and just a quick search shows that it tends to happen in years with El Ninos that develop in the late summer and fall (2015/ 2023). Last few days of satellite: Looks like we art going to do early Jan all over again, at least wrt tropical forcing: GEFS still likes a decent strat. disruption around Valentines Day: A true sudden stratosperic warming event (SSWE) has to have a wind reversal (blue lines drop below 0): EPS (above) isn't as enthused as it has been recently, even though the Euro OP still shows some significant warming: Any potential impacts, if we get a SSWE at some point this month, would likely be at least a couple of weeks minimum, after the event.

WBIR is reporting sidewalks covered with snow in sunbright. Just supercooled rain and occasional sleet here 20 minutes south.

As far as I can tell, it looks like everyone has gotten above freezing, so at least no ice to deal with this evening.

Even got a few lightning strikes on the front end:

Zoomed in for detail:

Occasionally, some really bright returns on radar across middle TN along the leading edge as the precip moves in. Would almost guarantee a burst of sleet.

Clouds moving in already, so not sure how much warming we can swing.

latest HRRR tossing out some ZR for afternoon evening, in east TN locations in the freezer this AM: Manages to squeeze out 0.30" in east Knox county:

I usually just try for whatever site I'm on, COD (College of Du Page), Pivotal, or Tropical tidbits. If I can't get it on there, it's usually not worth it for me.

3D SPV maps started updating again. Below just for imagery purposes, but it still looks like there will at minimum be a major disruption to the SPV around or just before Valentines day:

Sorry I'm just now seeing the map this am. I still have more than that after a day of sunshine, compaction, and sublimation lol

Got a quick gif of some lake effect clouds/ fog coming off Cherokee and Douglas Lakes overnight. I rock it back and forth to hopefully make it easier to see.