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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    Indeed, it is only one mention in the list and likely not to happen, but I wonder how often that one pops up? Many, but certainly not all of those dates did feature an eastern Gulf low in the NCEP reanalysis. Some of the dates looked ok and some looked totally unimpressive. I'd say averaged out there is something like 40 - 50% shot at a Gulf low given the CPC's projection and maybe add a few percentages onto that given what the models are currently showing. Though this year maybe we take away a percentage if a model shows it past 3 days, lol?
  2. Holston_River_Rambler

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    Stolen from the MA. And why not consider it after the winter we've had?
  3. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    I'm not saying it looks great in any way, but having 5 - 6" inches fall over half the watershed instead of all the watershed has to be better in some small way. Getting emails from the Euro people so I'm being a little more descriptive with their non-free maps for a bit.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    and of course as soon as I write this, more convective showers start to develop.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    Whoever that is should face prosecution if it was malicious.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    Kind of wondering the same thing, (i.e. is it one window it's actually seeing?). It does seem to see both, but a stronger MSLP, 500 mb, and QPF signal for the second as of now. Like you, the high is what I want at this point. Either way we win. Dry or snowy if something that big aims at us. And even if snowy, a high that big would allow for some cold and only gradual melting and subsequently draining of lakes to allow them to better deal with the QPF after the melt. We've got the cut off EPO ridge (still slightly shifting from run to run) inside 6 days now, so there's that at least, and that helps cut off the endless nightmare of shortwaves ejecting out of the SW. I also like the high's trajectory as currently modeled on the Euro. Instead of being something a disturbance attacks (Miller B), it's something that a shortwave could ride along side it as it drops in. Could all end up being one storm, if, as is usual, this all gets pushed back a day or two.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    I'm all for any dry air we can get at this point. Every little bit will help. For my neck of the woods, very happy the intense rain seems to have evaporated on radar as it pushed off the plateau this afternoon. Even though that may not help areas downstream now, hopefully it helps some in the long run.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    Strangely, EPS still likes the 3/4 - 5 window even more than the 3/2 window the Op is advertising. For the past couple of days it has been dead set on a similar set up March 4 -5. At this point I guess I basically expect it to change, but then again, have we had a set up like this modeled yet all winter? 1. MJO progression--check (last time it made it to phases 2 - 3 at any amplitude was December; now GFS and Euro suites show it getting there again) 2. giganto EPO ridge--check (I feel like this has always been just a bit further west and the trend at closer leads has been to push east with time). One thing that is extra interesting about that ridge is that it is a cut off. Those, whether anticyclones or cyclones are usually not well modeled. How does it play out once it develops? 3. cold air across western/ northern Canada to be displaced south--check (all that troughiness and snow out that way has to be good for something; no giant PV lobe bringing it to suppress this time) I also suppose having a 1050/ 60 high modeled is a good thing if you want the actual feature to be less suppressive, but then again maybe we want a 1050+ in March? 4. 50/50 low--check Several EPS members show suppression as a worry for snow. Heck yesterday one even had significant snow to the Gulf coast. I'll take that bet in March. If I lose at least it's dry. I guess in other words synoptically it's a good look, or as you said as good as one can ask for at a long lead. As always this winter, can we get it closer, or does it go poof? Again I think some things are different this time around the block, but at this point nothing would surprise me. Maybe that EPO ridge helps diminish the N. stream Ninaish component out for a bit and helps models? It truly was weird to have that Dec storm at least consistently in the ball park for such a long time and have almost nothing else (except maybe this rainy week) modeled as consistently.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    Yeah, Beaver Creek seems like it is almost in a perpetual mini flood, even when it is relatively dry. Still, it's something to see it lapping up against the high voltage towers as you drive down Emory toward Clinton highway.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    Should be plenty of snowpack over Yukon and BC to help a nice high at least develop, with all the storms and troughs rolling through. Come to think of it these midwest storms are laying down a nice carpet of snow too (though not too sure I buy the 4-6 over W NC right now. Roger Smith (who I've been watching more after you pointed out his winter forecast for me Carvers) had something to say about March: He likes the chance from a couple of front end thumps, but favors a "fat boy" to potentially form further east and ride up the coast. Maybe like a fat brown trout at sunset.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    Thankfully Euro shows only one more (admittedly long-lived) system to endure after this one before we get a break. Unfortunately it also shows a general 5-6" with a dollop of 8" inches over central/ western TN and central KY in an axis running from around N. MS to Jackson KY.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler

    Education and Questions/Discussion Regarding Weather Features

    https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/techprogram/paper_94815.htm
  13. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    No sleet for me in Knoxville, but huge, fat rain drops with the leading edge. Some culvert near a local market already gushing water after maybe 20 minutes of this. Hoping for a clap or two of thunder tonight.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler

    Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

    Yes please, I'll take 3:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    The EPS actually likes my idea from banter:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler

    Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

    I think the Euro was about to deliver, if it had only been run out to 360 hours, what a run I think it would have been!
  17. Holston_River_Rambler

    February 2019 Winter Speculation

    SOI trying to find the center of the earth at -43. Last 3 runs of the EPS from Sun Feb 24 - Sun March 3. Seems to be strengthening and pushing east the AK ridge as well as extending the troughing in the east ever so slightly more. Going to be interesting to see what happens to NWP once those twin cyclones in the Pacific run their courses. I'm sure with OLR measurements, having them there makes it look like the MJO is stuck and maybe it really is.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    Euro a little more optimistic for East TN this morning with a widespread 3 - 4" over the next 10 days. 5 - 7" (isolated 8) for areas west of the Cumberland plateau, so still not so good for the overall watershed. Fortunately 10"+ amounts no longer showing up, but I guess some of that from several days ago has already fallen.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    I feel like the RGEM did pretty well with the last slug of moisture and it looks quite a bit more widespread that the NAM this AM. Interestingly though, if it is right with the precip maximum, that would be a better place for it since there is a mini divide there. All water does go to the Gulf, but there it flows straight in from AL, instead of going through the TN to the Mississippi.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler

    Education and Questions/Discussion Regarding Weather Features

    Always wondered what Rossby waves looked like; Kind of glad those suckers formed since it looks like they may be sucking up some of the moisture that may have been aimed at us otherwise.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler

    TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

    Their graphic is still pretty aggressive though. I guess they are still factoring in later storms, but lowering the totals for the upcoming one.
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