midatlanticweather

Flurries in Purcellville at 5:45 am

A few hours back, while leaving to get some deals, I saw a few sleet pellets mixed in with the light rain showers. Hey, it was something frozen! Yay!

Model watching is not all that great in the long-range. A lot of switching, false hope, false heartbreak. Not sure we can be sure of anything!

Ya! Sure! LOL! The weenie in me hugs every snow depiction and finds heartbreak in every flip to nothing and milder! IT IS THE SEASON!

Typical craptastic! This is such a small feature I just would like to see some flakes. May not get even that

21.7 for a low. Not the coldest of the season but very good

21.3 for the low! Coldest of the season yet! Love it!

As usual, the challenges with changing patterns and alignment on the right features at the right times is a game of luck! A more favorable pattern does not always equal a good outcome. We know it is not just the right pattern signals, but also the right items in the right places at the right time to get wintry weather. Also, in transition periods the models obviously get the details wrong even if they provide clues to what could happen. My take, (and I realize I ain't no pro!) is that we will miss out as the couple of opportunities that showed are no longer there, but, the pattern is slightly more favorable for a feature or system to do provide some flakes. So far, the few blips of potential have been lost on subsequent model runs and this slightly favorable period looks like a miss for anything in the region. The cold does not seem lasting (which I think we will have to get used to this winter, but especially this time of year) and the more zonal look of the long-range should be no surprise to anyone. Maybe something is being missed or not represented right on the models, but I think we remain waiting with a few small cold shots! Maybe we get lucky!

Need that low to the west to go away or transfer quick. My bet is it trends poorly due to that feature. If it disappears or is not there, maybe something can happen. Looks like a northeastern snow to me and mainly inland if it were to come true

Anyone seeing precip? Radar shows precipitation in northern Loudoun and Western Maryland

Gfs is going differently today. Colder looks for sure

GFS looks like it locks away the cold by the end. Zonal kiss of death for any hopes for cold intrusions. Sad Outlook

GFS left nothing for me to be excited about. EURO threw a bone in there, but nothing seems super exciting. Kind of bored.

BWI: 19" DCA: 10" IAD: 22" RIC: 6" Tiebreaker LYH): 7"

CFS showing a crazy set up.. I know it is the CFS! LOL!

28.5 do far... probably will be the low! Great covering of frost everywhere! Love it!

Long-range, to me, looks less promising for any cold with legs to stand. Cold shot here then there and then a more zonal look to it. I am convinced this will be the plight of the winter with a somewhat promising look on a few model runs, then a revert to what is typical for La Nina.. I mean, this is the typical anyways!

38.3 here! Chilly nice night!

Lost digital snow overnight! Even seeing the snow hole

47.1 for a high today. Coldest high temp of the fall.

Would be cool. Moderating it could be a huge challenge!