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Albedoman

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  1. Albedoman
    NO way. I am sticking to my original forecast last month for the upcoming time period- after the moderate rainfall events this past week, with a light snow event that I predicted, the flood gates open up for a period of some nice cold air. I am still calling for a snow accumaltion event during the Pearl harbor day period 12/6- 12/9 as I reierated last week as the pattern changes and reloads. A good meterologist sticks to his original thoughts- I have been burned too many times changing my forecast on a single model run. For those who even care? My usual forecast prediction method for thew last 30+years- the 10 day GFS sniffs out the potential weather pattern changes, the Euro/CMC confirms those changes from 7- 10 days out for the potential pattern change, sometimes attached with a significant storm event. The Euro then confirms the potential pattern change/storm event it 48-72 hours out. Between 36- 48 hours, I rely on the Meso's, especially the NAM, RGEM and HRRR's with 36 hours for total precip/wind info. Chaos playtime on the models with major unreliability issues usually occurs on the GFS and Euro between 4-8 days out with upheavel and reversals sometimes noted. This is the result of unreliable and lack of data info from the few ocean buoys in the western Pacific being ingested into the models. When the potential storm event/pattern change finally comes on shore usually at 3-5 days out, the LR models tighten up and come into some type of agreement. Then its off to the races.
  2. Albedoman
    no moisture , no snow- let him honk. He is only exciting because his hometown in Ky will get snow while we still are moisture strarved The Apps and Allegany mts will suck out the moisture big time before it hits us as well as the real winner will be the lake effect snow areas. I am still counting on one small acumalating snow event by Dec 7 th and a nice Christmas day major snowstorm event
  3. Albedoman
    MY next big prediction LMAO -----Dec 6-7 first 6+ in snow for many in this region in two years . Always a Pearl harbor day snow storm event. Enjoy the sunny and 50 degree weather in the next three days- it will be short lived
  4. Albedoman
    been snowing for the last few hours here in Macungie. Sticking on the ground in the hills
  5. Albedoman
    The NAM really pinpoints the elevation snowfall forecast in S. Mtn ridges in western Lehigh County and eastern Berks. Spot on again from three days ago. White rain city coming. his Afternoon Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tonight A chance of rain and snow before midnight, then a chance of rain between midnight and 2am, then rain and snow likely after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow before noon, then rain and snow. High near 37. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
  6. Albedoman
    The 6Z Nam clearly depicted this as an elevation snow event for tomorrow morning and for verifying my forecast.
  7. Albedoman
    I trust my own outlook. So far spot on right now
  8. Albedoman
    still sticking with this as my first call 13 hours ago. The 12Z models for GFS and CMC pretty much back me up. Lots of white rain.
  9. Albedoman
    2-3 inches are my intial thoughts for the LV proper , more around S Mt area and Blue Mt areas (3-5 inches). Strictly elevation driven snow accumaltions . For example, driving through Shimerville on Rt 29 and toward Bear Creek resort , I see some good accumalting snow. Same goes with driving through Wind Gap, Lehigh Tunnel and Rt 309. Big wet heavy snow flakes half dollar size to pancake size-white rain). The streets will cave in the LV for accumalation if it snows hard enough in the early morning and toward sunrise. Poconos 12+ in around Tobyhanna a good bet. Winter storm watches issued for the Pocono area by morning Advisories everywhere else after Euro run
  10. Albedoman
    wow, the runs are even better than I thought. As I stated last month, the pattern change will usher in the deep freeze around Dec 7th after this snow event. The Christmas snow event time frame is still not dead Red Sky. Keep the precip coming , as the drought might be ended by Christmas
  11. Albedoman
    Hot damn, my 40 day forecast is coming to fruition. Moderate rains then a light snow event for Thanksgiving time frame. Whats wrong guys, have heard you naysayers lately saying how my forecast form October was a bunch of sh*t. I just hope we get the rain.
  12. Albedoman
    Right on time, as predicted in my forecast last month. I said the 15th a little early. I am still going with my original thoughts, moderate rains after mid Novmeber, a 1-3 inch snow event around Thanksgiving and then the arctic air invades after Dec 7 November 4 664 replies tropics heavy rainfall (and 5 more)
  13. Albedoman
    Thaks Mike but a case in point? what if numerous lighting strikes were around? Would that enhance the probability of rapid fire spread as well? I know red flag warnings are for high wind but what about other natural weather features like lighting have any effect on issuing a red flag warning. It almost seems that the ignition sources and their amounts must have a play in this somewhere for issuing red flag warnings.
  14. Albedoman
    from the drought guy. This a first for me guys please foward this to MT Holly. How dry is it? Enough low humidity to intiate spontaneous combustion. Red flag warnings really should be issued again MT Holly. This came as an alert to me a few minutes ago. Hello Lower Macungie Township Residents, The yard waste recycling center located at 5536 Indian Creek Road will be closed today, Friday November 15th. The mulch pile is currently emitting spontaneous flames and in order to maintain public safety, the site will be closed for the day. We sincerely apologize for the inconvenience.
  15. Albedoman
    Bring on the flakes for Black friday
  16. Albedoman
    The pattern will have abrupt change by Thanksgiving like I have been saying for at least a month or two. I expect moderate rains by the end of next week and then bam a nice little snow event. This mornings GFS run is in agreement. Time to shutoff the outside faucets and rake up the rest of the leaves by next Wednsday as the extreme dinural temp regime we have been in will be gone as well as the high in the 60's. I a mstill seeing a Christmas snow event too. The cold air is starting to be in place as the storms form to the SW in the models. Its a chance LOL
  17. Albedoman
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  19. Albedoman
    the drought guy wants you to understand how bad this drought is--- Green Lake reservoir which is Phillys primary water source- yesterdays picture. Why a drought emergency has not been declared is unknown- what is wrong with these govt folks" I was not shitting when I said it was the lowest level I have ever seen
  20. Albedoman
    .17 here in macungie. Barely over .10. Dry begats dry. Now the Chinook/Santa Ana NW winds kick in the next few days with more red flag warning/fire watches. 30 mph dry NW winds will ring out what little moisture we got last night. This rain we got just kept the dust down and thats it . I am waiting for the end of next week when this stubborn pattern finally breaks down and we more constant rain events and even have chances of snow showers.
  21. Albedoman
    No way do we even get .10 of an inch of rain here in the LV. The outside humidity cannot even climb above 70% at the house. All this shower will do will keep the leaf dust down for the townships to collect leaves. really pityful..
  22. Albedoman
    DRBC is holding a hearing to consider issuing a drought emergency. The last time this happened 2016-2017. Salt water intrusion into the Delaware River is becoming an issue
  23. Albedoman
    OK I said this almost a month ago- lets see how I am doing? 1. First measurable rain event in the last two months for Sunday so close I said intially on Tuesday this will "try" to break the drought 2. More rain events on tap after Sunday for late next week - this will help end these dying cold front pattern that we have been experiencing. 3. Snow events are now showing up on the LR models for our area just before Thanksgiving. 4. A significant Blocking pattern is attempting to set up which will defintely throw some cold air our way is now showing up on the LR range models I am a firm believer of historical patterns for weather and just do not dwell on strictly on LR teleconnected modelogy like many younger people do. I grew up and forecasted in a period where computers were not the cure all for LR forecasting. They simply did not exist even for the pro's . This current drought pattern setup we are in is more extreme but it all boils down to the same- NE Blocking and more good snow events patterns are now setting up for late November into December better than we have seen in 20+ years.
  24. Albedoman
    want to know how bad this drought is? For Mike Gortz this township alert notice should be incoporated into the MT Holly discusssions on how dry it really is: The township will no longer pickup leaves? Why, the chance of dust fires with the equipment. Folks, it is bad and I was not kidding about why I have been harping about a pretty serious drought the last six months for our area. I saw in the LR weather patterns back in the early 70's when I was kid being taught by my retired uncle who was the Regional western meteorologist director for NOAA in Boise Idaho as he explained these typical weather pattern setups for the eastern US. He allowed me to see the computer runs from Maryland back then of the AVN and MRF. Yes, I have been around. I also used the AVN and or MRF while I was an air traffic controller in the Navy all the time. Back then, they were used as guidance with observed data not as religiously as they are now for forecasting as they are today with the EURO and GFS. From Lower Macungie Township Alert Sent On: 11/05/2024 11:12:47 AM EST Due to the extreme dry conditions, leaf collection is severely impacted this year in regards to the level of timely service we are able to provide and the dust it is creating. We continue to collect our normal routes, however major delays (2-3 weeks in some cases) are being experienced. Dust levels generated by vacuum collections are extreme and beyond our control. The dust is also impacting our equipment and is generating down time. We understand the inconvenience this may cause and unfortunately, we remain unable to inform you of when we will be able to reach your roadway. Please continue to place your leaves at the curb and we ensure you that they will be collected; however, until we get rain, there may be several weeks between collection times. We appreciate your patience during this very unusual time.
  25. Albedoman
    Right on time, as predicted in my forecast last month. I said the 15th a little early. I am still going with my original thoughts, moderate rains after mid Novmeber, a 1-3 inch snow event around Thanksgiving and then the arctic air invades after Dec 7
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