StantonParkHoya

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Looks like Wake only has about another 1-2 hours of snow before the back edge is here.  They were predicting 11-12 for the cutoff.  Am I missing something?

The coastal hasn’t even ramped up yet. It will pivot.

Any PGV folks with a report?

38 and cloudy 

1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

Still mixing here in SW Durham.  Need it to changeover sometime soon.  It’s starting to get dark which should help accumulations.

It's not even 4 o'clock. Last light is at like 6:30.

Just now, burrel2 said:

imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as  many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour.

That's mighty optimistic. Not sure I agree.

HRRR really ramping up snowfall in SENC:

4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Latest RDU totals via Kuchera Method:

15z HRR = 2.2

12zGFS = 1.8

12zNAM = 3.5

12z RDPS = 5.9

 

Average = 3.3 inches at RDU

Any thoughts on the beefing up of totals in the southern coastal plain last few runs? Between Fayetteville and New Bern, totals have doubled on many of the models in the past 6 hours.

GFS has been identifying a maximum down between Kinston and New Bern for two runs now

Just now, BullCityWx said:

That used to be one of @WidreMann rules

WidreMann used to swear Rocky Mount was the snow capital of the east coast.

Somewhere between Greenville and Edenton, NC has around 17 inches on this NAM run. Absurdity.

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

My initial thinking right now is as follows:

Greenville, NC: 3"-6"
Norfolk: 2"-4"
Raleigh: 2"-4"
Wilmington: 1" or less

For perspective, below is snowfall data for the above four cities:

I don't think that Greenville, NC snow data is correct. Pretty sure they've gotten 6+ in the last 10 years..

Euro definitely mixier than other models

I think the GFS is having some issues. Looks quite different than 0z.

Canadian beefed up snow across central/ENC a good bit

The GFS is the biggest troll around. Always malfunctions when eyes are on it.

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

What about PGV? We are flirting with that mix line hard.

That is the ideal spot. MA Handbook reads: be close enough to the mix line to sniff the rain, there shall the big dog eat.

Also in the MA Handbook concerning timing of snow: Snow at dark has the most bark, the big possum walks late.

If this ends up with less of a warm nose, eastern NC is gonna get pummeled. The qpf is there, just need thermals to cooperate and bust low.

Just now, lilj4425 said:

Speaking of forum members, I miss Brick Tamland.

I hear he is at Dorothea Dix nowadays.

Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Lol haha I think snow chances are dwindling and this thread is about to turn into an online insane asylum.

Wildreman is that you?

Well the north trend is over if the GFS is to be believed

I can’t believe sun angle hasn’t been mentioned once. You SE crew are a more upstanding group than us degenerates in MA.

We in the mid-Atlantic always have the policy of cutting the NAM qpf in half at least.

Id favor a Euro/GFS/NAM blend.

Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Anyone have a trend on the last 5 NAM runs. I believe it has been moving the snow line north each run. More of a warm nose as well.

Do mods read these posts? They’re exhausting.

Amazing considering the Euro barely has precip making it back inland very far.

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

look at where that rain/snow line is on the 18z HRRR that just came out.... please be right! That's all the way down to lookout's house.

That’s reflectivity, not the rain snow line.