StantonParkHoya

Next week is truly looking glorious. HELLO SPRING

It's not the high that's squashing this. It's the confluence over New England and resultant positive tilt. Need that to weaken and s/w to dive down further west. Still time.

Also -- this is mid-day in March. Need some great dynamics (read: phasing between streams) to overcome the laserbeam-like sun angle we've got now. 

Total wag, but I'd still be watching if I were east of I-95 in NC or soutwest mountain folks as it comes across. Mighty big lift to get everyone in play.

Next week is really shaping up for a nice stretch of dry and 60s and 70s with the SER flexing.

Should be some ideal bloom conditions for bradfords and others.

I’m ready to call it for Wake County south, and east.

Spring is about to arrive.

7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

As least for the western and northern half of NC, and VA, I don’t understand the “it won’t snow After mid February” faction here. If anything, March snows have become more prevalent In the last decade.

The likelihood plummets after Feb 15 or so. Sun angle kills any marginal events so it has to be anomalously cold.

Last few days of met Winter. Let’s chase Spring and all it’s splendor.

Post your mid and long range Bermuda Highs, pollen and blooms, bees and other telltale signs.

31 here 5 miles north of 540 in Wake. Getting slick.

Bradford pears will be blooming in 3 weeks

Time to start looking for signs of Spring in the long range

‘89, ‘73 analogs

1062H in mountain west. I believe that would be a historic record.

I’ll take my chances with a 1061 H and a bombing Newfoundland low.

That’s gon’ be snow folks.

Haha almost 1060 high incoming. What in the hell?

Yeah, I'd be more worried about this washing out

Dallas Rule incoming on GFS

1 minute ago, HKY1894 said:

The whole western part of the state is not in his backyard. 

IMBY by proxy 

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is trying for Sunday. It's pretty close to something decent for western areas 

Can you please stop with the imby’isms. Everything you say is western this or mountain that.

I’ll be a cynic/realist for a moment — feel free to disagree or call me an ass — we have about 15 days in central/eastern NC.

1) We’ve been in an -NAO regime for 45+ days, that won’t last forever; 2) Late Feb is the new mid-March in the 21st century climate; and 3) Sun Angle(.)

Spring cometh despite the weenie protest.

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Right I see that.  But 6 hours prior, temps are borderline (for Wake).  The system is gone 6 hours later.  So we are looking at a quick hit of less than 6 hours of snow potential.  The model doesn't show any accumulations for those time periods unless something went wrong with it.

The model shows 4+ inches from Durham county - east. I don't know what you're looking at.

It's 26 at RDU during that timestamp FYI

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

A rain to snow changeover as cold air surges in...  not really showing any accumulations.

???

GFS with a snowstorm for NC next Wed/Thurs

27 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Didn't trend that way here

8 people live in the mountains, for the majority, it went from SN+ to SN-/Ice/Rain

I remember back in '09/'10, all the models kept showing SE snowstorms, feet and feet, then they trended into DC snowstorms. I want to see a south Alabama to Savannah snowstorm to feel good in Raleigh.

This has been a really wintery feeling winter.