StantonParkHoya

Is the new GFS out yet?

19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I didn't realize February and March were full spring months 

March is a full met spring month

Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Just a few more weeks till the Para GFS takes over. Can’t come soon enough. 

Seems like we say the same thing with every version update. The 2004 version of the Euro was better than what we have in today's U.S. GFS.

There’s some steam interaction going on. Always a positive.

33 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

That euro map makes it look like 90% of the winter storms in NC...  Wake already on the southeast edge....and the NW trend has a ways to go.

 

Eh, if this were a traditional Miller A, I'd be inclined to agree, however this storm has a bit differentiating it: 1) WAA driven precip; and 2) Excellent CAD setup. The CAD setups are generally undermodeled, so I would anticipate 2m temps to continue trending downward. I could definitely see a trend toward more sleet/ice in NC.

GFS v15 with the C-ENC snowstorm day 7/8. Nice.

Pretty classic setup for the models to trend colder as CAD is picked up. I like it.

1 hour ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

What part of Raleigh?  I normally score just north of Leesville and didn’t get anything today.

Creedmoor/540

10 hours ago, eyewall said:

So it looks like we have burned much of prime climo time and it is on to February. It won't be long before we have to fight sun angle etc. The GFS had a light event at month's end but obviously that is fantasy range.

I’ll be honest, been back in Raleigh this winter, and it has accidentally snowed more than I can ever remember.

Just today we had an intense snow squall that coated the ground.

And it has rarely been mild or warm this winter. While we may have missed on the blockbuster snow so far, it has certainly felt like winter.

Having grown up in the South, that is something to talk about.

8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

The South of the Border Crusher: Actually just misses to the north. Pedro would have been  happy in 9 days. Is that place still open??

 

Your geography is off. SOtB barely sees any snow on the Euro.

13 hours ago, Met1985 said:

I mean we are very early in winter but the MJO can wreak havoc on the pattern along with a cluster of other things. We will see but this has been the talk over the course of the past week or two. 

Very early in winter? Winter is halfway over. Met winter is what counts. In NC, winter for all intents and purposes ends March 1 except for very anomalous events.

Ripping in Boone per the King St. webcam

Other than the 9 people that live in the mountains, I think this one is a goner. All guidance looks like crap

Gonna be wild when N Wake and Creedmoor gets 4 inches and it rains downtown Raleigh

Again, totals for eastern NC going up and up with latest NAM. Gotta like the trends if you're Raleigh-east.

All the models are basically coalescing around the same idea now. For C/ENC, the key is going to be that deform late afternoon/evening and where the banding and rates set up.

Off topic, but it’s so hilarious that it almost takes an act of god, snowman cometh situation to get snow in the South, yet in the Rockies, it can accidentally snow in July.

This secondary max situation is becoming real for Eastern NC. They may cash in.

12z NAM actually lights up Central and Eastern NC as the "deform" rolls through Friday evening

Entire northern NC gets the goods on CMC. Looks like 6ish at RDU.

RDU folks will take and run

Tough for TV mets with a storm like this, where they like to broad brush accum amounts. Given banding, someone will verify or bust high, and someone will not come close.

I think the timing shift to later in the day has certainly hurt things, specifically BL temps. That is impacting accums.

Lol, NAM with a damn foot for northern Wake/Durham counties

For RDU, I'm thinking -- initial thump (mix/sleet?), over to light rain for a bit, end in some higher rates as final bands move W-E.