StantonParkHoya

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Antecedent warmth can be easily overcome with proper rates.  Mid Feb sun angle combined with barely freezing temps will be harder to overcome.  Better start early and better thump.  I know I am screwed, as usual, with light rates that will lead to wet streets and sloppy trashcan lids.

We're on the board with our first one!

2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Euro is looking good for DC to be the cutoff on the south side and Philly the cutoff on the north. Based on north trends. Looking good.

DC is nowhere near the southern cutoff. What are you talking about?

Over/under on sun angle posts on Saturday given it will be 2/16 (mid-February)?

Euro is beautiful for a nice 4-6 inch daytime Saturday snow. Daytime snows are the best.

5 minutes ago, tplbge said:

I think models will draft south for the next day.  And just when everybody gives up, we get nam'd at 0z tomorrow.

Interesting opinion given that the GFS has trended north for the past day and a half.

The GFS has bumped north and trended stronger with the surface reflection 3 runs in a row. I like where I sit 78 hours out.

As someone mentioned previously, DC and south has 4 weeks left. Once March gets here, if there is nothing immediate on the horizon, you can stick a fork in it. 

Close out Feb with a few blockbusters then bring on Spring!

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

What bad luck. A snowy and snow covered January

Is this real? I feel like it's been colder than normal.

Our April/May -NAOs hardly ever fail. I'm sure we will have some coastal beauts to track for Easter.

Just now, JakkelWx said:

Oh boy. Sun angle doesn't really matter until March.. By that point, you need heavy rates to cave surfaces and the snow would melt a couple days later anyways depending on what time of march it is

I'm not sure that is true considering February sun angle is similar to that of late October, early November.

Quick question for my own understanding: at what point does sun angle start making a difference in marginal events? Early Feb? Mid-Feb?

Here in town, we've got about 6-7 weeks left to make it count. Better get going soon.

It better hurry up and snow before the sun angle discussions begin

Folks do recall that there were -10 readings all the way into NC just last year right?

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Coastal gets going a bit further south so less love up this way. Gives RIC or just north reason to rejoice a bit.

The whole thing looks better. The lower totals north are just a result of banding. I like the increases south and east.

Look at the uptick in totals near St. Louis and east of there in the last 12 hours. It’s showing over a foot in areas it showed 7 or 8 inches for 12 hours ago.

Just now, Hyphnx said:

I'm just south of the city. Expecting tons of ice/mixing in my backyard. Models are starting to come to an agreement that this could be another hit for RIC but DC seeing a good amount, too

If you’re south of RIC, I’d maybe consider the Southeast forum. Otherwise, our rooting interests are likely to not align.

1 minute ago, jackb979 said:

Anyone disagree with CWG's timeline a little bit? seems like they have the onset a little too early (saurday afternoon) and ending too early (sunday morning) when some models have shown this going into 12z and 18z sunday 

Onset has always been late morning - early afternoon tomorrow.

Just now, LP08 said:

Precip max continues to bullseye EZF and just north of there.

DC is a good place to be sitting considering the 24 hour rule of 30-60 mile adjustment north.

I'm confused as to why DC would experience any UHI effect in this scenario given temps in the mid-20s? Why would that limit our snow total?

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Huge differences in climatology between northern PA and North Carolina, lol.


.

Where would you put them? Huge differences in North Carolina and Florida, so can't go in the Southeast according to that logic. NC/VA/DC/MD piedmont share pretty close climo.