StantonParkHoya

After next weekend, we only have 42 days of Met winter left

2 hours ago, Mersky said:

No issues with this look, especially during peak minimum  climo temps in late January. 

Peak climo temps are early January, not late

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's been that way since thanksgiving. Windows opening and closing. Today wasn't even much of a window but worked out anyways. Would be nice if our next event is all snow with cold surface to start

We’ve realistically only got about 45 days for that to have a chance. Once March gets here, things get exponentially tougher.

17 minutes ago, Interstate said:

How so?  Weenies looks at the snowfall clown maps like that is what is going to be on the ground. That just says what is going to fall based on a 10:1 ratio, not what is actually on the ground. 

Who said anything about maps or models?

I don’t want to take away from the fun, but this event really underscored the UHI that is DC once more. We had enough heavy snow, that in a rural field would have amounted to 2-3 inches, but was quickly vanquished by the concrete and steel.

It’s sad. I really appreciate everyone’s pictures. It was fun nonetheless.

It won’t show in the record books, but one of the more fun storms of the past 5 years.  2 hours of mod to heavy rates. Not much to show for it, but fun. Would take over 12 hours of light.

This is good folks.

This is the hardest it’s snowed on the Hill in some time.

We just started ripping fatties on the Hill

Sometimes I think I’d trade living in the city for the snow of rural areas, then I experience running water and electricity and recall that I like it.

Rain on Capitol Hell

DC proper has the same climate as Raleigh. 

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

How is that physically possible?  I am down to 33 in eastern NC.  Have the clouds already rolled in for you?

Urban. Heat. Island.

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Best d10-15 EPS run of winter by a large margin. Implies that if things break right there is good storm potential and not just messy nickles and dimes. 

We take nickles and dimes and run. We're in the food stamp line Chill.

Some of you guys need to step away from the keyboard for a while. Sheesh. It’s just a bad pattern.

32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I absolutely get the pessimism.  I feel like it's much harder to get cold and snow than it used to be.  It's discouraging.  At the same time, if you're really trying to understand the pattern or make a real forecast, you have to look at the data and let that be the primary driver.  In all honesty, I don't care what happened last December or the one before that.  It's a new year, and the weather doesn't know what it did last year.  The general idea that it's harder to be below normal than above needs to be considered, but if the data are pointing toward a good winter or a good period, then that should be the overriding factor.

Raleigh got 15.6 inches of snow last year and in January 2018, RDU spent a record 159 hours below freezing. Lakes and ponds throughout the state were frozen so thick, ice-skating was rampant. 

I get what you're saying, but don't let recency bias turn into hyperbole. This is just a crap pattern. 

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Thankfully winter hasn’t even started yet. I’ll turn to the doom and gloom this Saturday. 

Met winter has

15 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

 

If you follow Brad P. and watched his outlook for winter, he mentions more than once that overall, this was going to a mild winter. But he thinks we’ll have above average snowfall. It’s not even Christmas, still plenty of time to salvage a good winter. And it’s a lot easier to get snow in Oklahoma and the Midwest, they don’t have those pesky mountains to delay cold snaps or precipitation.


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Or the Atlantic, which is the number one reason for moderating temps and mix lines at NC latitude. 

NC folks need to root for more NS interaction and a phase. The HP position without a cold air source isn’t gonna get it done. See the paths to victory from 3-4 days ago.

If you want snow in NC, you want to see dry and suppression at this juncture.

Huge changes in the LR on the Euro. 

Euro moving toward GFS in the mid-range. More ridging out west.

GFS went from putting down snow on the OBX beaches to raining on us with the same low (12/22) within 2 cycles. lol.

GFS still insistent on the the SLP off the SE coast next weekend

We might end up warm around Xmas, but GFS wants to send us into the freezer next weekend.