StantonParkHoya

Snow on OBX beaches before we get one would be the cherry on top for us this winter.

Anyone have what it does between 216 and 240? 

35 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

Random thought but curious if there’s any relationship between a strong PV and annual sea ice extent. 

Yes. See now.

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Leaf out already? I know you’re well south into North Carolina, but wow...that’s nuts.

I came back from a work trip last week and saw the maples had started to bud around here. While I recall early buds before, I can’t remember them popping this early.

Wilson is actually in northern NC. Only about 3.5 hours from DC.

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And still well below the old normal.  Not to mention it’s all young ice and not multiyear pack.

I suppose it’s better than the alternative.

The upside is the ice in the Arctic is at one of its largest extents in recent history.

29 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Don't say that, I thought it couldn't get worse than last year

Did DCA not finish with above normal season snow last year?

Why would anyone want a cold March?

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Wonder how early cherry blossoms will pop.  Earliest I think is 15 March.  They have to be swelling at this point.  I mean it has not been really cold for really long basically at all this winter.  

Barring a late cold-snap, it'll almost certainly be an early peak bloom year. 

Every February I post this thread. With Met Winter concluding in 23 days, and no winter weather in sight, I felt it timely to do so now.

One month from now, the sun will set in Washington at 7:08pm.

Pitchers and catchers are reporting. First Spring Training games start next week.

Daffodils and other early blooms are already emerging.

Post your observations and other thoughts here.

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at.  the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

Lol

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I can say emphatically that I have seen on numerous occasions bare pavement and nothing on Capital Hill in DC and several inches in the nearby suburbs outside the Beltway with the same storm.  If it snows an inch outside the Beltway as depicted I am skeptical the inside the Beltway crowd see anything.

That’s the trade off for living in civilization. Thems the breaks.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Our climate is much closer related to astronomical winter than met winter. So I calculate 47 days left.

Not in DC it's not

26 days of met winter left

21 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

March snow is pretty awesome. Sun angle isn't really an issue for me. We could get 10 inches in Jan and it torch the day after like 50 degrees and all the snow melts fast anyway. I have a feeling we'll have a nice consolation snow in the next 30 days. February is usually good to us. January has always been frustrating for me. Help me out, isn't February the middle of winter anyway for us? 

In the city, March snow melts on its way down. 

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That has at least some gradient potential.  

Except the gradient is in western PA, not over us.

If the SE ridge takes hold in mid-February, our goose is cooked.

Euro looks.....interesting for next weekend.

13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It's a dead ringer for almost every winter I experienced in Memphis from 1998 - 2009.

They're not the same. NC is substantially colder than GA.

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m as bad as anybody when it comes to getting desperate for snow but I think we need to still remember that there are about 7 weeks left where significant snowfall can occur. Like a lot of people, once we pass Presidents’ Day, I enjoy the snow less, but we still get good ones nonetheless. It’s easily feasible that by late March we are sitting here with near normal snow totals. I remember 93 well and that year flipped on a dime from awful to special, at least where I lived, right about the 7th of February.

In DC proper, there really aren't 7 weeks anymore. For you rurals, sure.

Hell, it's difficult for us to snow correctly in mid-January. March 1 is Spring for the most part inside the beltway. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yup...I do think it’s undeniable that “bad” years are getting worse. DCs ability to eek its way to something like 8” in a crap year like this is being hurt by marginal events becoming harder and harder to work. The early Jan storm was an example where 30 years ago DC might have got 2” instead of .2. This weekend if some light precip does make it in maybe in the past DC adds another 1-2” but now it’s likely white rain. So I think what we’re already crap years are worse. 3” instead of 8”. 1” instead of 5”. And that sucks but is that really the big deal?   Would that many people be happy if DC ended up with 8” instead of 3”?  Likely the same people would be whining because by the standards of the past that 8” would be crappy. So long as our “good patterns” still produce that’s the most important thing. We just haven’t had any.  If we start to see good patterns not working anymore that’s when alarms will go off for me. It’s probably coming eventually but I don’t see that yet. 

Conversely, I'm not so sure that the new climate hasn't made storms that previously may have dropped a foot, now drop 14". 

8 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

 

All of these are impressive in their own way. But aren't these outliers?

Instead of specifying 1 cold week in one state in the SE, or mentioning 2 events in one city in that state in the SE, couldn't we come up with a better measure? Maybe we could compare Asheville's avg snowfall between 2010-2019 and compare to it's historical avg? Or maybe instead of focusing on that crazy cold week that was referenced in NC 2 years ago, we could compare it to the overall avg winter temperature that year, which if I recall correctly, was one big torch?

 

My comment was a direct response to the statement, "it never gets cold anymore". Which is obviously false.

2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Except most of those winters took place before 2010, you know, when it actually got cold every now and then. Most of us haven't even had a close call yet. Not to mention we're well past 1/15 and it's not looking good. Still, theres hope. 

The coldest week in history for a large swath of NC occurred in the last 3 years. 

I'd guess it's trying to transfer from AL/GA to off ORF.

I'd rather have an early spring than white rain on pavement in March

38 days of Met winter remain