StantonParkHoya

Just now, gymengineer said:

A later tweet by him has a new center reading of 983 mb. As Dr. Knabb pointed out, the wind direction at Georgetown would shift upon the actual landfall. We’ll wait for the NHC’s verdict. 

With the shape of SC coast, it won’t shift to E until it’s somewhat inland

Josh just said he found the center inland near Awendaw on Twitter. 985mb currently 

They just called it GaWx

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I'm guessing, based on it being near the 32.5N, 79.1W buoy at 11:30 AM, that landfall will be in the upper part of the SC coast around mid-afternoon. If Ian continues mainly northward and doesn't landfall til near Myrtle Beach, it could be as late as ~4 PM. But if it turns left sharply toward Georgetown, it could landfall as early as ~2PM.

 Looking at the latest reports from the SC coast, the SLP is now lowest and falling most rapidly at Georgetown (ignore the Charleston Waterfront Park SLP, which always runs way lower than nearby stations and is thus bogus). As of 12:35 PM, it was 29.13"/986 mb. An hour earlier it was at 29.25" and two hours earlier it was at 29.36":

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge

Dr. Knabb just declared landfall on the weather channel, just southwest of McLellansville

I think we have landfall

This is going to be a much earlier landfall than was forecast

I’ve seen some forecasts of 50-60mph winds but have yet to see any reports of such from the coast

Hard to believe it takes 7 more hours to make landfall

It’s 53 degrees at my location. Definitely more like November.

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Maybe I’m wrong about this but the southeast coast doesn’t see a 980 mb coastal nor’easter though, even in peak baroclincity season… 980 or lower caliber doesn’t materialize until the mid Atlantic and northeast. Might make for greater than expected impacts…
 

Pretty cool. 

Yes, but the southeast coast encounters high category hurricanes, whereas the mid Atlantic and northeast do not. I think they’ll handle it.

Do hurricane models suffer any deficiency once a system transitions to a hybrid?

Any convection or cold cloud tops are getting absolutely shredded once reaching land

Has Ian started the NW turn?

18z Euro brings it in south of Charleston, who knows?

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC 8 PM location is 29.7N, 79.4W, which is right on the 12Z UKMET forecast for 8 PM and well east of the 12Z Euro forecast for 8 PM, which had it at 29.7N, 79.9W. The NHC 5 PM track didn't have it get to 79.4W for another 6 hours. Thus both the 5 PM NHC track and the 12Z Euro are too far west. Therefore, I'm sticking with the 12Z/18Z UKMET runs for a just SW of Myrtle Beach landfall rather than close to CHS.

Speed difference?

It’s looks pretty awful on IR

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

And in between the two gets you to model consensus ne of Charleston 

1 minute ago, ATDoel said:

Is Ian still technically a tropical cyclone at this point?  Definitely looks extratropical.

See my post above, NHC calling it a hybrid, non-classical hurricane -- language I've never seen them use before

Big ol' nor'easter right there

Good article, and same point made by several NWS discussions and NHC, the eye location and landfall are really secondary focuses given the diffused nature of the wind. 50 miles doesn't make much difference from a wind perspective either way, more of a surge potential determining factor.

Also of note -- NHC calls this a hybrid system, and a non-classical hurricane.

Charleston to Georgetown, SC. We won't know exact landfall until showtime.

Just now, mappy said:

I too will be impacted by its remnants this weekend, but you don't see me asking for information about that here. I go to my subforum. You should do that. 

Forgive me for querying "Wonder what Ian will be up to this weekend", logically finding "Tropical Headquarters --> Hurricane Ian" and hoping it might be the place

1 minute ago, mappy said:

what is it that you're looking for? how can we make this a more enjoyable experience for you? 

I already asked: can we please make 1) a thread for post-FL landfall discussion, etc... etc..; and 2) a current obs/model discussion thread?

I'm still in this path, and have to sift through 40 posts about FL damage, climate ramblings, etc. to see any discussion on future Ian.

This thread is a dumpster fire

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I'm even further northeast. Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall in the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area.

that would be a 170 mile miss by the Euro under 24 hours away.... bold call