StantonParkHoya

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

starting to weaken slightly as it heads due north just west of Tampa 

If by just west, you mean 150 miles west. It’s noticeably west of 12z.

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The timing is everything for an east coast special. The storm has to be far enough N&E to feel the trough but not get pushed OTS by it and it can't get trapped by the ridge either. 

It’s a low likelihood 

9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

We're gonna be east of FL by the 6z runs if this continues 

 

Wow. We said there was no way of avoiding a US landfall, but life finds a way.

One notable for those thinking eastern threat — the runs most east are the quickest (when ridging is to the west), by the time high/heights get overhead and east, storm is out.

Thinking most likely is a somewhat weak entry north of Tampa, riding northward along I-95 til an exit near Wilmington, NC.

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Think even if it misses Florida to the east, may be able to provide a threat to OBX northward with building high pressure

I’m skeptical, it would also be dealing with roaring sheer and dry air entrainment.

Just now, cptcatz said:

Anyone know what the longest thread is for an invest prior to becoming a TD?  Gotta think this is getting there.

Indeed. If it were the 90s, without long range modeling, we wouldn’t even be talking about this.

We’re gonna spend 100k words on a thread for a Cat 1 that barely makes landfall

Feels more like a mid-October storm with the temps and overall synoptic pattern ahead and behind it. Chilly in the east.

edit: also noticeable is the drop in intensity is now uniform in all hurricane models once in northern gulf, likely reacting to dry air/sheer accompanying the trough.

7 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Looking at the morning model suites, I am starting to believe more in an eastern solution where the cyclone recurves across the FL peninsula.  The GFS is spuriously developing vortices that keep this unorganized until the NW Caribbean.  Morning visible images and ASCAT confirm a tight closed circulation, and I see no reason this doesn't stay consolidated.  This spurious vorticity causes it to get much further west than it would if it were an organized cyclone.  I also think the GFS is underselling the interaction between the first trough and the cyclone.  A trough that strong isn't going to just tug this north and leave it, especially if the storm is already a hurricane upon interaction with the trough. 

Ironically, Levi mentions a stronger solution early is more likely to tug west as it feels impacts of northeasterly sheer.

25 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

12Z CMC and ICON look very similar 

CMC has temps in the low 50s in NW South Carolina at landfall. More like a nor’easter.

GFS already 300 miles NE of 6z

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Op 6Z GFS landfall between Cameron and Intercoastal City not supported by ensembles.  GEFS are mainly NOLA to Florida Big Bend.

The mean is Mobile after a landfall in Cancun

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

 I am not sure there is much of a realistic chance this misses the US without going into the Yucatan or C America...if this manages to avoid those 2 there would need to be some serious changes to get this to totally miss FL or the Gulf 

I meant post FL crossing

1 minute ago, Normandy said:

As we move closer, there are two potential solutions developing:

- Solution 1 misses the connection on the first trough, causing the storm to instead slowly move NNW until eventual landfall on the N GOM cost (still likely Florida Panhandle, but some potential of a Alabama or MS landfall is on the table)

- Solution 2 does not miss the connection of the first trough, and instead the storm is yanked NE across SE FL.  What's more concerning than even that, the trough does not take the storm out to sea and instead leaves it heading due North into a building ridge above.  

 

In short:  US is in SERIOUS trouble me thinks with this one.

Which is weird. Still think that trough would shove it OTS.

GFS ensemble further SW as well. Looks like a cluster into New Orleans.

Might get a Cancun landfall

edit: it does, totally new solution here

GFS noticeably southwest of 6z

Bus ticket to Atlanta on 6z

14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The one thing about a storm almost paralleling the Florida West Coast, remembering Charley, they'll need to have a larger than normal area in the H Warning (assuming the 9 and 10 day Euro verifies).   A near miss offshore, judging by the shape of Tampa Bay, would still be a major surge issue.  I'm feeling WC Florida or Panhandle, but enough GEFS get the Atlantic side or reach the Carolinas, they aren't in the clear by any means.

Most GEFS members that cross over to the Atlantic side look to be heading OTS however

TS force winds all the way up to Atlanta

As others have pointed out, Bermuda is not really a “traditional tropical island”…

heck, their new airport is nicer than any in the US

All of the Euro ensemble solutions that threaten US landfall basically dissipate Fiona over Hispaniola which allows it to survive and get caught up in the westerlies flow.

It still gets caught by the mega trough later on. Low probability outcome.

Really concerned for Bermuda as well

12 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Levi's Tropical Tidbits videos are back!

Just watched. Great synopsis. Does mention that even if it does get closer to NA, the mega trough would clean it up.

We may need to shift our concern/tracking to potential impacts on Bermuda if the GFS is to be believed; potential cat 4/5 bearing down.