StantonParkHoya

11 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Euro crawls in the southern Bahamas

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

It also may go east of Bermuda. Way OTS.

Looks like about 90% of GEFS members recurve 

GFS wayyyyyyy OTS. Not even close.

I think it really is a question of does this survive through the Caribbean. If it flushes Hispaniola, this thread is for nought.

OBX scraper. I suppose the whole window of options is available.

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I guess we  have to counter that with this.

 

 

It would  have to go from what  it  looks  like  now to a possible  low end  cat4 west  of  Bermuda. Given that  in reality  it  isnt a tropical storm any longer and  its  looks  awful this  seems equally  unlikely. Maybe  it  just opens  up to a wave and just sails  into Mexico.

Except 80% of the modeling favors the latter fish path right now 

There’s always November. Maybe the weirds will score on a Frankenstein storm.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I don't care about ace either but plenty of people do.

I will give you that it has been boring but prime time is about to come up. We also still have all of September and October but by then , home grown storms will show its face. 

This is analogous to the snow weenies annual "we can get good storms in March and April"....

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People do

Why are you here if you don't care about ACE ?

It's active compared to what we saw.

Compared to the quietest period in Atlantic hurricane history? Sure. I'll throw you that bone.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Are you looking at the models?

The same models that have had a train of ghost storms all season only for little to materialize? I swear the folks on here who act like this is an active season are no better weenies than the snow freaks.

And don't give me the ACE bs -- no one cares how much power is churning off the coast of Greenland.

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

This is a new one on the 12Z UKMET fwiw, which is at a very low latitude moving WNW in the E MDR:

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 :  9.8N  26.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 09.09.2022  120   9.8N  26.4W     1009            26
    0000UTC 10.09.2022  132  10.6N  30.4W     1009            29
    1200UTC 10.09.2022  144  11.4N  34.2W     1008            33

 

 Also, just looking at Danielle and Earl, alone, per the NHC progs and extending further out, ACE for just about every day through Sept 12 is likely to be above normal at least through then meaning at or above normal ACE days through a good portion of peak season. And this doesn't include any other TC that may develop. If Earl becomes a major (now forecasted), it alone will generate 4+ per day for those days, which would be at a minimum 160% of the highest ACE average for any day for 1991-2020, which is 2.5 (Sept 15th).

 Per 1991-2020 averages, Sep 1-15 average ACE is 33. 2022 could easily end up 40+ for Sep 1-15. That would be quite an impressive turnaround. If Earl were to become a major on 9/8 and remain that way for several days, a 50+ ACE for Sep 1-15 would not just be a remote possibility, especially considering what else may be out there. I'm still at 120 ACE for this season and 6 NS this month.

My dude, are you trying to pretend this is an active season?

I am actually glad/hopeful about a record slow tropical year. I think it will force us to take a look in the mirror and realize activity is not simply dictated by + ocean temps or climatic forces.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It's September 2

Which is the absolute peak of the season. Ensembles not showing much through the middle of the month. Once September ends, you’ve got autumn troughs picking up and less landfall threat.

Now the GFS has basically even lost the Gulf system of any significance.

53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think I went something like 21/10/5.  

It’ll be hard to get 18 more NS, but the other two are doable. Given the western Atlantic. Need October to make up for a dead first 1/3 - 2/3 of August though. 

Problem is La Niña loves a train of autumn cold fronts

We can say we’re at 3 storms already, but that “cloudy swirl” off the SC coast in July should not have been classified.

Spring arrives in 6 days folks. Get your gardening supplies dusted off and the lawn mowers tuned up.

I’ve got trees blooming all over here in Raleigh.

25 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

 

That’s a cold rain pattern east of Boone in March. Need some purples.

21 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

I still think we get at least one more winter system to track.

12 more days and it will have to be a spring storm

2 weeks until met spring, 14 days, 10 hours.

16 hours ago, jlh said:

My rose bushes have started sprouting their leaves. Talk about jumping the gun just a tad.

You can just walk outside and tell the sun is stronger. 17 days.

27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks nothing like spring in my yard, looked like the arctic tundra this morning at 26 degrees

18 days

Daffodils are really coming up, days are getting exponentially longer and brighter. You can tell the sun angle is progressing more overhead.

.....Spring is at the doorstep.

5 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Spring is coming

20 days to met spring. Less than 3 weeks.

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

GFS not too shabby this run

I’d rather take my chances with the coastal potential than this bootleg way