StantonParkHoya

Euro goes Tampa-Atlanta-Knoxville-Columbus

Just crawls up the peninsula. Maybe not even a TS by the time it enters GA.

Euro’s eyes still locked on Tampa 

CMC actually slower and a touch west this run

I’m betting they coalesce around Big Bend in the end

Sure feels like some people wishcasting an east trend just to see mayhem for Tampa…

1001mb at 11am

Sure looks like it’s still heading due west, not NW like forecasted 

3 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Thank you Floyd for the NHC track plots on Charley. The earlier forecast was remarkably accurate not only for the Florida Coast but also for the second landfall (I watched the eye pass directly overhead on Cape Fear, N.C.) The more updated forecast not only missed the Florida landfall but also had no second landfall at all! Charley is a good reminder that depending on trajectory a small error can rapidly magnify. 

While here let me thank you for the good work you do on your videos.

18 years in modeling advancements 

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

It would seem to me that the models are really honking on a tremendous amount of shear and dry air located into the Southeastern states upon arrival of Ian to the Florida West Coast or up in the Panhandle.  There has been dry air up here in the Middle Atlantic and the dry air behind these troughs up here is very stout.

 

I mean it was 43 degrees here in Southeastern Pa with dewpoints running in the lower to middle 30's that type fo dry air means business, and I don't see any reason that the dry air would charge southeast towards Ian behind a trough leaving the Mid Atlantic next week.

It was in the 30s with frost in Boone, NC. Can’t recall many tropical systems of consequence after that stuff starts.

48 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Most all models except GFS are around Tampa area

This is simply not true as most hurricane models are into the Panama City to Big Bend areas.

Honestly between 0z run yesterday of the Euro and 0z today, it’s maybe a 40 mile difference in track. Noise.

Split the difference with GFS is right where NHC has it. Big bend to central GA.

0z Euro straight into Tampa; crawling up Florida, only makes it to Gainesville in 24 hours. Looks like it’s heading to Atlanta.

overall pretty similar to 12z

3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Nah that's 18z look at bottom right 

Ah my bad. Looks about same position.

11 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

00z with a tick east 

 

 

Also a narrowing of the envelope from PC to Big Bend.

GFS going in at Panama City, very slight tick east

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Right shift on 18Z ICON vs 12Z with Ft Myers to Daytona track

It’s sitting in Daytona and not even raining in charleston 

notable that only one GEFS member goes south of Tampa with a very large contingent into AL or even LA/MS

You can feel the wishcasting on here based on which side of the coin people chime in with

12z CMC takes it into Gulf Shores, AL

Can we please cut the banter?

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z euro

Quite weak

I mean he’s right, these air masses are more akin to mid/late October