StantonParkHoya

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is identical to the last run almost. Crawling up the coast south of Sarasota

It’s actually north and west of 6z

If I read one more charley reference I’m going to gouge my eyes out

25 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Dude you’re so transparent. You disappeared from the thread until you see a model shift east and do it with every storm 

Precisely

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I don't know.  This is looking more and more like Charley (2004) as we get closer.

It physically cannot just go off to the northeast. Do people understand this?

That’s not in the Atlantic. The high res show it over Orlando.

Just now, Normandy said:

Here come the east shifts.......Knew it was coming.  Its the same thing that happens to storms that are recurving off the east coast....they always trend east.

Except the last one that was supposed to go over Bermuda and missed west

Goes west of Atlanta, Alabama line

3 hours ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Getting to the point the main thread is getting confusing… 2 post says Tampa doom and gloom, than the next Tampa completely safe, than doom and gloom and than 2 more saying it’s gonna completely miss and go way west. 

That’s because the board is littered with shit posters and wishcasters. You can tell whatever trend is bad for Tampa, that’s what some will point to — whether it be east or west.

3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Anything left of Ian that transverses FL will get obliterated in the Atlantic with all this dry/cool air continuing to push thru the southeast.  Not much worry about a second landfall IMO.

Note, please find a blue shed near TPA on google maps.  That is our LF.  We all need another legacy moment with JP's narraration.  

It’s also literally the only model with such an absurd track

Damn thing is just gonna wash out over Tampa

8 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

OTWH, Euro ensemble eyeball mean is towards TPA, OTOH it has initialized as a weak system and the ones that head further N towards the shear and dry air are the stronger members

That is the 6z from yesterday, see time stamp as Sunday 

1 minute ago, TradeWinds said:

It does have a lot more members TPA south and reintroduced Ft Myers. But it also added California evidently. 

It also sent more members to New Orleans

0z hurricane models split between north of Tampa landfall and Big Bend

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

18z GEFS goes east

The mean is literally in the exact same position. Maybe 10 miles east. 

Can we take a minute and talk about the inland situation for GA/SC and northward? Pretty good rains forecast.

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Are you all comparing the same frame? 72 hours on the 18Z Euro is 18Z on Wednesday. Compared to 18Z Wednesday on the 12Z run, it’s a bit further north, not west. 

Semantics. 12z has it going into Tampa, 18z has it parallel to Tampa 

Euro about 50 miles west, pretty similar to GFS.

We may finally be getting a good idea on Florida target.

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I don’t think the euro has Ian as intense at this hour as it’s been found to be on recon dropsonde.  
 

I wonder how that will affect the euro model on the next run once that data gets absorbed? 

GFS had it stronger

Been bone dry in Raleigh for weeks. We can soak it up.

As has been mentioned, winds are really a non issue compared to the surge

1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Yeah I would say the GFS is out to lunch on this one. GFS tends to struggle with these Florida canes because it either likes to slide the trough out quicker or it holds it back longer. GFS never really depicts these troughs right.

The trough position really hasn’t change, it’s more storm speed/trajectory

Kind of lurches it around to a Big Bend landfall 

Interesting they keep that NE trajectory longer term even with a H sliding off New England and models turning it NW after landfall

Idk. I think the NHC forecast position is just about right.

1 minute ago, Weather Mike said:

not sure how that can be that west when Euro and UKMET are east and the GFS shifted east just now towards Tally so not sure I am buying too much into that based on the 12Z Euro and UKMET

Ensembles, not operationals