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StantonParkHoya

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Posts posted by StantonParkHoya

  1. 37 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

    Not really. We are currently in the midst of another major SSW that will impact a good portion of April in my opinion. Lots of variables and changes going on.

    That’s good if you like cool rain. It’s not 1962. You’re not getting snow in April. I, like most sane people, prefer Spring and being outdoors.

    • Like 1
  2. 3 hours ago, GaWx said:

     There's still no -AO/-NAO late on the ensemble means near the end of the month. If that were to verify along with no prospects for it in early March (say, on model runs two weeks from now), only then would I start to think that a multi-week long SSW generated -AO/-NAO isn't going to happen. But it is still very early with the major SSW not even becoming official (shift of 60N 10 mb winds from W to E) for another 3-4 days. Then there's the typical 2 or so week lag.

     So, we're still a good ~2-3 weeks from when this hypothetical SSW generated -AO/-NAO would typically get started. And as I've shown, the troposphere is notoriously much more difficult to forecast than the strat out just two weeks.

     So, the 12Z EPS like the others has no -AO/-NAO of significance at the end based on my eyeballing it. However, it and the 12Z GEFS do fwiw have a Scandinavian block that forms on Feb 25th as have the last 3 runs. What is needed for SE cold lovers is for that block to instead be 1,500 miles to the west.

    Ga… do you know when 2-3 weeks from now is? This isn’t Montana.

    • Haha 2
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