StantonParkHoya

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

A slow ramp up but probably starting sometime between 3 and 5 am

NWS says we’ve had a gust to 31 but I have yet to see a limb move

She’s going to make landfall before 8am per NAM

10 minutes ago, TSG said:

And? that waters been getting churned by TS force winds for hours and hours. What was the temp 24 hrs ago? 

78. This isn’t Florida. Lose the attitude.

Water temp at HAT is 77 and 79 at CF, not exactly bath water

30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Buoy reports have really ramped up. From cape fear to hatteras all offshore buoys are gusting over 50 with the Onslow bay outer buoy gusting to 65 at the moment. These winds should make it to the coast is the next 3-4 hours

You realize over-water winds do not translate 1:1 on-land?

Nor’easter comma head

Haven’t seen a land reporting station gusting over 30 yet

Dewpoints in the 50s across central NC

12 hours ago, NJsnow89 said:

Lol no replies even though this could be a nice storm for our area in central NC

If you’ve lived in coastal NC very long, this doesn’t reach excitement level. Kind of like Minneapolis residents and a 4 inch snow.

Noreaster 

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS coming in stronger and further west

It’s literally right over where it was before.

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Im sure others saw but 12z GFS brought a borderline hurricane into cape lookout

It’s not tropical

Kind of just pinpointing the heavy rain situation at this point. Looks like a STS from Wilmington to offshore NC on the table with 1-5 inches of rain from NC to CT.

Euro never brings the STS onshore 

6z GFS just keeps it offshore and away from CONUS. Have seen a few models want to do this.

4 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

Look at that wind field. Good thing the ceiling for this is only a low-end category 1 (if even), any further organization would be disastrous due to the large wind field. 

20-40 mph winds?

Euro is…different. Low just meanders and weakens off GA coast.

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 12Z UKMET: unlike 0Z that forms S of Charleston and then moves NNE into NC, this forms just off NC followed by NNE, NE, and ENE movement to well offshore the NE US/Canada that never allows it to landfall anywhere through hour 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.9N 74.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2023 120 34.9N 74.9W 1005 36
0000UTC 24.09.2023 132 37.3N 73.8W 1005 36
1200UTC 24.09.2023 144 38.9N 71.2W 1009 33
0000UTC 25.09.2023 156 39.4N 67.9W 1011 30
1200UTC 25.09.2023 168 39.6N 62.3W 1013 34

GFS kind of trending this way run-over-run. 
 

Could see an OBX skirting situation. Seems like every system this year has had a late eastern shift. 
 

Nigel was originally showing a track west of Bermuda to only end up hundreds of miles east.

Little low, maybe a TD? on the euro for GA/SC

I’m not sure El Niño has matured to have an impact on this season, but could see some impacts on next.

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Yep, 30 mph sustained winds at Hatteras and 10-15 foot waves. 2 to 4 feet of Coastal flooding as well.

550 miles away. Pretty wild

Looks like GFS goes east of Bermuda and euro goes right over it

19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Give it time though. Old inner core is still pulsing. Shear is not fully gone yet. Should look drastically different tomorrow.

In 48 she begins entering Franklins wake, so SSTs drop off. Don’t think it ever recovers.

Lee looks like garbage

She passed north of 20N at about 57.7W. I know we were using 60 as a marker for potential landfalls.