StantonParkHoya

What are we even looking at? The LR has a big ridge over the eastern 1/2 for Feb into early March. We’re cooked.

https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1757134777549779064?s=46&t=jAFaB6obZkJTfvsymMHE1g

17 days. Post your spring observations here (ie. Blooms, yard things, pollen bemoaning, etc)

15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

He is generally always pessimistic about winter weather and cold and it has served him well for the mot part. 

That’s an easy default that will prove true 95% of the time

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Our winter now runs Dec-Jan. February is spring. More 60’s and 70’s than days in the 50’s. I bet we end up with more frosts from November than we do this entire month 

Let’s just hope we don’t continue the trend of getting our dream blocking set up on March 25 as has been the pattern.

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Out of 16 runs, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/26-3/4 came in by far the warmest yet for that week!

Love it. Let spring into your hearts, people!

Please note that for many on the forum, the first post-6pm sunset occurs this week, and for Atlanta, almost 6:30

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 12Z GFS: note the subsequent sfc low just off FL at 192. Close call for the coast.

The 540 line is in Scranton

This ain’t working out folks 

Some local cherry trees blooming. I’m sure the Bradford pears are getting ready. 

No matter the mid range storm, 2/24+ is spring pattern 

32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While it’s not all climate change, throwing out places that have a buffer and don’t struggle to get to freezing for snow as evidence is a poor argument. If you were 20 degrees and now you’re 25 it doesn’t matter. When we struggle to get to 32-34 for snow as is, it’s a much bigger deal even if you’re a degree or two warmer 

Similarly, you could say Boston doesn’t live on the margins for temps, yet they are also in a snow drought relative to their normal.

My wag is, yes, our background state has shifted to our detriment, but I would chalk the past 5 years up more to total shit patterns for the whole east coast.

We always do well when there’s a deep ass trough down to San Diego right? And a PV dropping into the gulf of Alaska?

Just now, wncsnow said:

Nothing screams February 10 like 70° at 11:30 a.m. 

it’s magnificent and gets the spring juices flowing

Today is absolutely glorious. Let’s just move to this through May.

We had similar stretches in the 90s. It’s about perspective. I’d buy in if we EVER got the teleconnections to line up, but we just haven’t rolled a good roll. 

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GEFS is below normal for the 18-20th period, near normal 20-22, then WAY above normal the rest of the month. Sound familiar to Jan? 

The SER cometh

The fact people even mention the CMC here other than anecdotally is hilarious. It’s a horrible model.

The writing is on the wall.

6z GFS loses +PNA and is working on wc trough at end. 

13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I have seen ice storms in March here. Not sure about Triangle but it's not THAT late in the season

Feb 21st has a sun elevation equivalent to October. The sun is just strong, and lower elevations like the triangle have a tough time accruing ice by then unless it is anomalously cold.

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

18z is ice which is probably more realistic lol.

How common is ZR this late in the season?

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’d take that storm here. Would probably be enough to cover the pavement assuming sun angle wasn’t too much 

Never challenge the sun angle in late Feb.

10 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

6 and 12z GFS ops were not too far off but the storm has been in the southeast on the Euro and Canadian ops as well.  Details far from clear yet but that along with the synoptic outlook is basically the epitome of what this forum is about.   
 

My guess is that something more definitive will appear in the coming days regarding the 18-20th.  Let’s see, it may ot may not work out.

Can we acknowledge that just a few days ago we were talking 13th-15th and now we’re to 18-20th? Can kicking.

Can tell the sun is getting stronger just standing outside now. Shadows shorter. Sun direction has swung many degrees around in my yard. Spring cometh.

So are the ops ever going to show anything? Everyone living and dying by the ens until April hits?

18z GFS shows plenty of 60s for highs for the SE in that run.