StantonParkHoya

Everyone needs to chill. This feels like pre-KU snowstorm when people start questioning things.

Both the Euro and GFS showing a mighty close call on Bermuda. They need to be prepared.

Those late September MDRs face so much pressure to recurve though 

Euro almost hits Bermuda on the way NE

I’m confused as to what people are still looking for here? Whether it scrapes MA or ME? I think that’s going to be a gametime decision.

They all bend before 70W when you go out in time 

0 US hits among GEFS members

GFS hits maritime Canada 

21 minutes ago, Hotair said:

New England has never seen even a Cat 4 storm come onshore.  Most powerful one was a Cat 3 in 1938 (New England hurricane ) which caused significant damage throughout Long Island.   Needless to say, all the stick built homes and above ground utilities would be utterly destroyed if a powerful cane like Lee were to come onshore as a Cat 4 anywhere along the New England coast.  

It's not going to be a Cat 4 going through 68-73 degree waters

It passes through Franklin's upwelling as well

10 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Cantore is "worried" about a path between the B high and trough for it to push NW toward OBX...happen to just catch that few minutes ago...based on Euro...so he's saying there is a chance...slim one

Which means there’s no chance

6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

And there’s a clear and evident SW shift, both the forward speed and track to the islands will have implications for areas west of 60W.

Godspeed on your endeavors

3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

There was no wishcasting in that post. And no, they are not virtually identical. You can clearly see the SW shift in location on tropicaltidbits when switching frames. This is an important trend to follow for numerous reasons. Any shift, in any direction, will have repercussions on Lee and his eventual track. More importantly, the farther south Lee tracks it opens the possibility to Lee tracking underneath the trough and potentially stalling.

One is slower… 

17 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

18z GFS is SW of 12z at 150

GFS continues to adjust to a further southwest solution with a slower recurve. 

Last several runs clearly show the progression  

They’re virtually identical. Wishcasting for hits is just as bad or worse as wishcasting for a recurve.

5 minutes ago, Normandy said:

The system to the east of Lee the GFS is developing is an issue.  It’s boosting ridging in top of Lee, which is pushing it further west

It's not further west

12z GFS about 100 miles NE of 6z position through 96

6z Euro is actually NE of yesterdays 6z run

When is recon scheduled to begin?

0z CMC direct hit on Bermuda

0z GFS with a close call on Bermuda 

Misses CONUS, may miss Canada

2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Trough looks less amped in the great lakes when he makes the turn

Trough is actually more amped this run and further east

8 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Play-by-play: Latest GFS run has ticked slightly south at hr 138.

Commentary: remember the early model runs of Maria took her into the Chesapeake Bay? Completely missed way south ended up recurving into the backside of Florida. So long range is almost useless to hang onto

edit: this is my post # 666. Wonder if that bodes ill?

150 hours out before crossing the rubicon isn’t exactly an early run or long range

Now every GEFS member misses the US. At 6z there were 2 questionable.

43 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Gonna suck to waste this in an Atlantic fish storm 

Easy to say except for the people it impacts. These types of posts shouldn’t be allowed.