StantonParkHoya

Looks like we return to normal to AN late March / early April

Ship has sailed folks. Get your beach gear out and tune up the lawn mower.

Had a good coating of snow in the mulch in Raleigh. Now some drizzle.

Long range EPS shows a zonal pattern late March. Seasonal temps mid to upper 60s.

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 How much does sun angle matter anywhere and at any time of year if there is a thick overcast? Anyone know?

A lot. I think it was DC in March 2018ish. It killed us when temps were marginal.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 6Z GEFS/0Z GEPS has a moderate/modest Miller A ish Gulf storm signal for late 3/19 through 3/20, but that's nearly in fantasyland. Should there be one, it could get interesting for some areas (especially NC) for wintry precip ~3/20 considering how cold the preceding airmass might be. There have been some wintry precip events during 3/19-21 looking back in history.

 More immediately, there's a good chance for snow falling for part of tomorrow for especially northern NC! It would be a challenge for it to stick but not impossible in some areas for some stickage. But it just falling would be quite notable, especially for mid March and this winter's lack of it.

 

The GFS never has it falling below 39 in Granville/ Wake counties. I don’t see it.

All of this late March cool/cold tells me we are going to see multiple 90+ days in mid-late April. Summer come-early is incoming.

9 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Looking at that March 18th sun with a slushy snowpack 

 

Thank god someone finally brought up sun angle

If you just bet on the inevitable 200 mile NW trend every time, you’ll never be disappointed.

We hunting frosts now?

Why do we keep referring to these mid March dates like they’re far off? The 11th is literally this Saturday.

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

Oh, GFS, you won't get me this time!!!

 

I’ll give you 500:1

I’ve also noticed that op runs from 5-7 days out have consistently been 5 or more degrees too cool by day of. 

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

If nothing else, perhaps this season has beaten through our collective thick skulls that 5 day+ op runs are meaningless.

 

At least until December, when collective amnesia sets in and that weenie map crack becomes irresistible again 

It’ll be El Niño come December and hope will be restored.

Insane amount of butterflies this year here.

Also, my dogwood is starting to bloom.

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

The EPS has had the signal for the past 3-4 days....  it is more faint now, but still there.  

GEFS has not been as robust...  honestly the most recent run only had one member out of 30....

I'm just a snow lover at heart and want to see some falling.

With upper 30s and mid March sun angle, “falling” snow is close to best case. It’s just not going to amount to anything.

Spectacular out today. Pure spring 

A beautiful 82 degrees along SE NC beaches at the end of the GFS run 

It’s March not Feb 

Spring has sprung

That cold push keeps getting less and less intense on the GFS. 

GFS only has a few hours out of 384 below freezing for RDU

Never bet against the SER

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL just showed wind forecast and the highest it got was around 20s tomorrow night.
Didn’t act like it was a big deal here.


.

GFS tops out at about 27 knots for RDU

I apologize. I will return to post all the: “great”, “amazing”, “clown maps”, “crushings”, “deep spring” model outputs when it shows 80+ degrees every day.

I don’t think I’ll have to wait long to do so.