BTRWx's Thanks Giving

We're saved!

Even though ssta's to me look like 2011, one major difference is the MJO that December was closer to phase 5.  Right now we're close to 7.  If blocking develops as modeled down the stretch, then we could luck out.  I also remember Bob Chill saying -NAO during the Fall is a good sign for NAO in winter.  I'm still skeptical, but more uncertain.

26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The problem is that even though ens at long range are better than op runs, they are still largely unreliable. Today’s 6z for 72 hours vs. the 6z run for the same time 7 days ago …

That's not always the case.  It's just some years the models are more chaotic.

It's kind of strange how the MJO is being modeled to race toward the null circle and then back out.

This comment might ruin the positive vibes about the long range, but I'm only going to mention my opinion here once. I'm skeptical that the MJO will cycle into phase 8, because the ensembles don't show much consistency.  Back to lurking.

43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Trying to learn more about the MJO. Anyone got resources that a noob could use to educate themselves?

The basics are pretty simple if you use these two references and match the variable to the phase from the ensembles.

Temperature: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Precip: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/

4 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

I have to be honest, I haven't looked at a single gfs run in quite some time.  Focusing on just the euro reduces false hope.

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

we need to have the south trend stabilize by Monday then the north trend to bring us back into the spot where the GFS is right now, what can go wrong?

A sheared out mess

0z euro looks like about .5".

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think he still knows what he is talking about...he is playing people for fools.  There are times he is contradicting things he said earlier in the season (when situations change) or going against things others in his own company are saying or "forgets" things I know he knows from 2 decades ago when I used to correspond with him and he wasn't like this at all.  He has either really totally and completely lost his mind or he is has simply sold out and doing it on purpose.  It's probably a little of both but I still think its mostly an act.  If he admits now that its probably going to be warm and snowless for the foreseeable future his subscription numbers for December will take a hit.  

Ever since he left Accuweather his expertise seems to have declined.  It really makes me wonder about him leaving.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think he still knows what he is talking about...he is playing people for fools.  There are times he is contradicting things he said earlier in the season (when situations change) or going against things others in his own company are saying or "forgets" things I know he knows from 2 decades ago when I used to correspond with him and he wasn't like this at all.  He has either really totally and completely lost his mind or he is has simply sold out and doing it on purpose.  It's probably a little of both but I still think its mostly an act.  If he admits now that its probably going to be warm and snowless for the foreseeable future his subscription numbers for December will take a hit.  

I will copy my next comment to banter.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s odd since JB is touting his 95-96 analog so much!! 

I used to think he knew what he was talking about.  The issue I have with his '96 idea is he's basing the analog on a model for early January.  I've learned that analoging works best when you compare to the current conditions and not using models to base an argument.

I sent two emails without a response. 

On 10/29/2021 at 1:03 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It's time for the 7th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members and people outside the region!
 
You are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) for the four major airports: BWI, DCA, IAD and RIC. 

For the tiebreaker, choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury (SBY) or Lynchburg (LYH). Please choose only one- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. 

The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. This link explains the calculation in more detail, for anyone who needs clarification: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50428-mid-atlantic-winter-2017-18-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=4656575 

Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order:
BWI:
DCA:
IAD:
RIC:

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH):

The deadline for entries is Wednesday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to edit your forecast as many times as you want until the deadline. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well.

Please do NOT post troll forecasts this year. Yes, they're hilarious, but they just confuse me when typing entries in the spreadsheet, and often people have forgotten to update their trollcasts with a real one.

The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners:

2015-16: @Shadowzone

2016-17: @Stormpc

2017-18: @olafminesaw

2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc)

2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide

2020-21: @NorthArlington101

Good luck everyone!

I'm not entering the contest.  I just want to predict DCA: 4".

Have we scheduled a time yet?

I was thinking that a good day to try this out would be the start of meteorological winter unless someone has a better suggestion.  Maybe we'll have a Dec 5 threat to track?

11 hours ago, Cobalt said:

 

I'm out

You know what the forum hasn't done that should've taken place ages ago?  A ZOOM call!  We should totally set something up!  I genuinely want to get to know people from here in real life.

I have a cool idea for forum members to collaborate on an ongoing project.  What if we collectively did a blog on the most memorable events our forum has covered!  Anyone can participate.  The idea would be to write a brief summary for each event and include links to articles and data from the event!  Anyone interested?

One thing that gets my hopes up this winter is we're coming out of a solar minimum and historically that has led to some really snowy winters!  1965-1966, 1986-1987, 1995-1996, and 2009-2010 (1977-1978 had lagged more following the minimum)

What a shelf cloud at Nationals Park!

I can't stand Davey Martinez's managing style!

This isn't March!

and dry slotted