BTRWx's Thanks Giving

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

4 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Stealing eps from Mike Thomas's live stream

That's not as bad as psu made it out to be

He also showed 6 consecutive runs trending south.

Stealing eps from Mike Thomas's live stream

The number of winter weather events all of a sudden reminds me of 2013-2015.

I finally have a burst with large flakes.

I would never boast about another region being screwed.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey man, you decided to grab a hammer and drive a bent nail into the board with rain talk. Cherry picking panels and telling others they were going to fail hard. I pointed out why your point didnt make any sense with real analysis but you kept going and so did I and here we are

So you want to get your point across by rubbing in my face again?

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dont feel like scrolling back. How much rain is BTR reporting?

Do you have to be a jerk about it?

I thought I'd never say this, but shout out to psu!

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You logging out soon?  Thanks for your service.  You called it.  This one is a fail.  See you next storm. Drive safely.

I don't log out.

2 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Nor has your posting. 

You will fail hard tomorrow.

Medium range guidance has not performed well this winter.

2 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Just look at the radar. That’s a ton of moisture aimed right at us. Temps are going down pretty well and dews are good. 

I'm going to have to disagree.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

lol its killing him.

5.2 for my yard 

I'm not the only one.

It must be a really bad euro run.

Why is snowfall distribution from euro not being posted?

5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

18z euro

Compared to 12Z?

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL I wondered why there were no gfs posts. I know why now. Geez

Euro is all we have left.

Someone else can be roasted for posting the GFS.

I may not be the best at explaining things, but what I post does add value.

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Why are you bringing up the beginning of the precip time frame? This is well ahead of the 7H frontogenesis band that WILL develop to the south and move north as the SLP along the coast move NE into your latitude. The lowest boundary layer, which has been hammered ad-nauseum, is the biggest deterrent for the higher end potential for the event. It would've taken a potent s/w (which was modeled by most guidance as early as 24 hrs ago) to overcome that type of setup. It's trended a bit weaker with the s/w and in turn has limited the potential of the event. Also, you live in basically DC. You know your climo. Marginal events don't work super well for you unless you get significant cooling aloft down into the lowest confines of the boundary layer. You don't have elevation on your side either, so you can't take advantage of orographic enhancement that happens all the time with these setups. 

You're going to get snow tomorrow, but posting the snow depth map (which I know you have some kind of fascination with despite it being ultra conservative 99% of the time), consistently bad mouthing a setup where it'll snow and likely a few moderate to heavy bands at that, and the fact 70% of this forum lives in a better climo than you should cause you to just sit back and take what's given unless you have some meteorological premise to back up all your posts. Persistent pessimism is not only frowned upon, it's extremely debilitating for others on this site trying to learn. You've been here long enough, you should know that. I'm 1900 miles away putting in time and effort to a forecast I'm gonna nothing from, but I want others to learn from what is being shown on guidance and how to forecast. Please, next time, if the setup starts looking bleak for you, move to Banter, or follow along with nothing to say and enjoy whatever snow falls. People want to learn, and this constant back and forth of the same diatribe and handwringing is absolutely a detriment to anyone who wants to learn the fundamentals of meteorology and the process in forecasting. 

People ignore facts. That's why I do it.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Sure, if dew points were high and evap cooling already took place. Neither of those apply to the cherry picked panels you posted. I get it. You want it to rain. And it might for a little while before the flip. Make sure you set your alarm to catch the rain before it's gone

I don't want it to rain. I'm just trying to be realistic about what the model shows.

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

How come nobody is looking at soundings on the nams? If you did you'd realize that the only temp prob is right at the surface when it counts. It's cold right off the deck on up. Not just a little cold either. Mid levels look great. Column is in good shape. It's usually not when the surface is dicey. Does anybody look at soundings anymore?

This looks problematic to me.

2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I'll add that the 12K isn't any better, but it provides better overall guidance IMO. We'll see tomorrow whether we get less than .5 around here or not. 

I don't want to post it, but the snowfall maps from the two NAM runs on tropicaltidbits are actually quite similar.  There's something way off about Weatherbell snow maps. They're the worst.

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Hard to say how much QPF though since the off runs are not in range yet. Thru this image it’s maybe like .2?

A lot of it is rain.

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Honestly, I tend to read the PBP before heading to TTB myself because I get too much nervous excitement to ruin the drama. But the NAM doesn't look half bad. And the 3k...well I really don't trust it to be honest. For a high res model, I find it to be pretty bad at the QPF side especially when it comes to banding. Not bashing it or anything, but a NAM outcome with dynamic cooling would be an excellent outcome. I'll take a Euro/NAM blend and call it a day. 

There's never a situation where the 12KM NAM can outscore the 3KM NAM with mesoscale features.