BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Oh boy, the upper level red and blue schlong sword fight pattern inbound. Hide yo kids and hide yo wifi. And make sure you protect your weenie. 

I'll be sure to hide my wifi.

5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Incoming on Euro!

Miller A!

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I mean, even if this doesn’t pick up dramatically, another 8-12 hours like this will rack up 4-6” total for DC area and MBY.  It’s not sexy, but it’s steady. Hopefully we can get a good burst or two at some point.

That's not the case in D.C.

That GFS depth map I posted last night may not be that far off.

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Radar in the lull area is looking better the last few scans. Looking "splotchy" back towards Front Royal and Culpeper. Let's see if Bob Chill is right...he usually is. He might have some way of controlling the weather. 

Let's just hope it's not mixy.

Sucks there's no football today.

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey the Euro should be about to confirm the coastal low will miss us when will someone post those maps. 

It runs at 1:00.

At least flakes are still flying during the lull.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Still snowing in Cville. Best flake quality in some time, actually. Have to have hit 6” or close to it but think we are starting to deal with compaction.

Congrats!

Just now, paxpatriot said:

What a horrible model. I have never seen the CMC get a storm right when others didn't.

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Anyone trying to bank much on the coastal south of I-70 was definitely in prayer mode. The RGEM runs were fun in a cosmic way and it was great to joke around for a time, but unless other guidance started showing something similar, I just remained skeptical and cautionary, waiting to see if it kept it up and others joined in.

I thought the NAMs, the NSSL, the HRRR this morning, the ARW, the NMM, and the HREF would start to come around to the globals but they have shown the exact opposite. It would be a brutal beat for the local NWS offices, and that’s my main reason I feel down. If you haven’t worked in a NWS office, you don’t realize the amount of trust you lose busting a forecast like this and you get berated from all different directions and have to re-earn trust again. It would suck and I would feel for my colleagues. People are stupid and suck and don’t understand weather and it makes the matter worse.

I’m also still recovering from a back injury. I’m much better than a week ago, but I’m not 100%. I am irritated of how this year started and I have other personal stuff with family I’m not gonna talk about. It’s a tough time for me and seeing my friends here get pasted would make me happy. Hopefully everyone enjoys the snow today. I know I’d be out driving around in it, having an absolute blast. It’s such a joy for me and I miss it and I miss home.


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There must be some debate between A.M. and P.M. forecasters at LWX on whether to forecast 6-8" or 4-6" for D.C.

Fwiw, on tonight's CWG live stream Jeff Halverson went with 3.5" for DCA while Jason went with 5.7"and Wes went with 4.1". 4-8 seems pretty high right now.

1 minute ago, high risk said:

       Might be talking about the GFS parallel which is definitely not feeling the love for the District.

The depth map

The GFS barely has 4" inside the beltway and some of that is mixed precipitation.  Trends are not good.

Just now, nj2va said:

Just got home and catching up on the last 10 or so pages.  What a freakin’ roller coaster of emotions especially the last few pages.  It’s gonna snow y’all!  First 5” snowfall in DC in two years...enjoy it!

Ob: 32/17

How do you know it's 5"?

3km nam starts dry.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2021013100/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

Microclimates are always interesting. I remember when I was commuting attending UMBC but living at home with my folks in Mt. Airy. I'd leave school and it would be raining and 36 and as I drove out Rt. 70 it would get progressively more wintery as I drove. I always loved that.

Did you take any classes with Jeff Halverson?

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

It’s similar to NYC.  If there is little to no wind to bring in the cold air, the temp doesn’t drop.

Cloud cover can do it too.

Just now, Weather Will said:

Seem to be still some variance still in low coastal position for Mon on 18Z EPS

That is a nice cluster just se of Delaware.

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

With respect to deform band - EPS has been pretty consistently trending stronger 

It's trending the low north too.

Interesting to see the hrrr not dry slotting much for D.C.

Wow, impressive dew points!

GFS has the low farther west pretty close to Ocean City midday Monday.

Just now, Ji said:

its not the amount...its the trend we are going and its the wrong direction

Would you rather go from 26 to 22 or 1 to 2?