BTRWx's Thanks Giving

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 3K NAM through 3pm Mon.

The snow map is the hrrr.

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Reasonable to give a range given some of the uncertainties we face. Seems like they considered our local climo and a blend of models for that call.

Forecasts are always a range.

Snow on snow on snow on snow on snow on snow on...

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

CWG goes with 5-8" for DC. 

Their boom/bust scenarios are very realistic. 

1 minute ago, weathercoins said:

CWG teasing that they’re about to up their snow totals (last map they had was ok I thought) https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1875615910687559981?s=46

That's not what they said. It could be simply tightening the boundaries.

3 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Did some research this morning. The last plowable snowfall event of 4 to 8 inches for DMV was Jan 3rd 2022. They are well overdue for a good storm. 

We had one last year of about 3-4", but nothing like this. 

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also this exact event is why people shouldn't fret over ENSO. some of you guys might have half of your yearly average by Jan 6 while north of 78 smokes cirrus as we're heading into a favorable pattern. I kinda love the irony

My new favorite pattern is a +TNH/+PNA combination!

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 15Z NBM.

So NBM is going against the euro? 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

4-6 is my personal call as well (fwiw, lol)

Me too (3-6+)

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo.

That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy.

Just think how many forecasts would bust  if we only had one without the other.

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Did tick north with the heavy accums tho.  

So greater than 10:1?

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

I’d say predicting the precise location of isolated snow squalls is different than a full storm but…

Atmospheric memory is a thing.

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z GEFS looks pretty solid. Similar to 12z but just a tad drier. Mixing is a thing on a significant number of members for the lowlands.

 

Does the euro have 18Z eps? I'm only asking because I have never seen it.

Very interesting to see the maximums differ so much between the GFS and Euro. GFS has it over MD while the Euro has it south of D.C. and both have shown those solutions consistently.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Heh..snow maps are decent 10-14...but that includes sleet...so reduce that

Pivotal shows 7-8" snow depth.

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'd urge caution with conclusions this early.

Precip shield is mostly back in line with 12z

My bad, I'm comparing to 6z.

Just now, stormtracker said:

So far, northern border of precip shied is just a bit north out in the midwest.  temps remain the same

and slower

I see colder isotherms ahead of the system on the 18Z GFS.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

84hr NAM has a wrong bias 

1 hr NAM has wrong bias.

3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

A wise man once posted this.  Could have sworn it was you!

That's not accurate. I think eps should be favored through day 3.

I'll take this look any day!

Is that a convective enhancement I'm seeing tomorrow night on the  18Z GFS?

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I can't show that, not allowed. But I can tell you it looks great for DC metro.

Someone beat you to it.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

No one is hiding it because they were bad - they were good!

It supports NBM well. 

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

What about it?

I would like to see it please. I'm only assuming it was bad since nobody posted it.