BTRWx's Thanks Giving

DT has been bashing Wakefield.

3 minutes ago, 300 square feet said:

New totals from LWX!

I see 6-12 for some reason.

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Put your snow obs here….

Leftover coating from Friday slowly melting.

Looks like a very slight shift south with the heaviest precip.

Slightly later arrival on the  12z euro compared to 0z.

Just now, BristowWx said:

Wxman1 is a favorite of mine.  The name says it all.  Number 1.  He knows shit. 

I think you are missing a word.  lol

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

Millville seemed right on target 3 days ago with his forecast of 8-12” for much of the area. All the models agree with the DMV being in the bullseye. 

Same with DT

Are we calling it a SECS?

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Don’t see much of a change there at all. 

Purples expanded

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air

just a matter of how it all comes together

What a weird western ridge orientation.

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

True. And I don't discount the NAM completely like some others. HRRR on the fringe somewhat but getting into range. 

Others are more experienced.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Anybody else notice any huge differences?   

I see the Low quite a bit south compared to 6Z.

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

LP off VB is tasty. 

Would a precip field expand that far west if the low is that far east?

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 3K NAM through 3pm Mon.

The snow map is the hrrr.

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Reasonable to give a range given some of the uncertainties we face. Seems like they considered our local climo and a blend of models for that call.

Forecasts are always a range.

Snow on snow on snow on snow on snow on snow on...

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

CWG goes with 5-8" for DC. 

Their boom/bust scenarios are very realistic. 

1 minute ago, weathercoins said:

CWG teasing that they’re about to up their snow totals (last map they had was ok I thought) https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1875615910687559981?s=46

That's not what they said. It could be simply tightening the boundaries.

3 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Did some research this morning. The last plowable snowfall event of 4 to 8 inches for DMV was Jan 3rd 2022. They are well overdue for a good storm. 

We had one last year of about 3-4", but nothing like this. 

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also this exact event is why people shouldn't fret over ENSO. some of you guys might have half of your yearly average by Jan 6 while north of 78 smokes cirrus as we're heading into a favorable pattern. I kinda love the irony

My new favorite pattern is a +TNH/+PNA combination!

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 15Z NBM.

So NBM is going against the euro? 

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

4-6 is my personal call as well (fwiw, lol)

Me too (3-6+)

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo.

That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy.

Just think how many forecasts would bust  if we only had one without the other.

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Did tick north with the heavy accums tho.  

So greater than 10:1?

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

I’d say predicting the precise location of isolated snow squalls is different than a full storm but…

Atmospheric memory is a thing.