How much sleet can we realistically get in 8-9 hours? Cuz thats about what were looking at upstream on radar. Everything else after that may switch over to freezing rain/drizzle tomorrow morning. But with the CAD we have in place for the triad, i'm banking on 90% IP. Maybe a quarter inch an hour with moderate rates....so 2-3" total IP is my best guess.
After this non-storm I can safely say I have everything I need for the foreseeable future. Next event, grocery store, gas and dog food, that's it. If anything, this forced me to change the oil in the generators. So there's that.
Purely focused on radar OBS now kind sir! Good to know you are here and watching out for us. I'm looking specifically at the band headed into eastern TN thats getting crushed by these low DPs. Seems the initial "finger" of moisture that was showing up on a few models doesnt stand a chance.
No flurries all the way back to Winston. Radar just keeps drying up. Dewpoints and cold winning this early battle. I expect we will lose all of the QPF before Oz to virga. That really limits this to a 12 hour event. We're dodging bullets in real time here.
26° at the farm in Stuart and it 100% smells like snow. Has to be just over my head now. Expecting to see flurries on the drive back to Winston. Generator #2 is in the truck with propane bottles and gas. I'm as prepared as I can be to help myself and neighbors. Its go time!
How funny would that be if we all burned out from this week and we end up getting smashed in the mouth next week by our 12-24" storm? All I know is thank God I'm not flying the next 2 weeks. Travel is going to SUCK!
I'm not sure anyone cares anymore. I don't even recall tracking Katrina this long. It is what it is. We're too busy being suckered into next weeks blizzard.
No matter the outcome, it cannot be understated that our mid/long range modeling is SO.DAMN.BAD. In any reality is it acceptable to have 3 major models showing me 30" of snow 5 days out and end up with this.
Mole hills are generally small and unimpressive. But if you want to make a mountain out of said mole hill, then by all means stand on it and preach brother Buddy! I don't think you will find much disagreement.
Lets be honest though, the thrill factor with the kiddos just went from a solid 6.8 with just snow sledding to a 9.1 with an ice pack on top. This is the difference between a minor bump or bruise falling off the sled and becoming a human missile capable of shattering mailbox posts. ZR on top of IP on top of SN is about the best setup you could ask for in terms of fast sledding. It packs perfectly.
Oddly enough I had a discussion with a relative in Toledo this afternoon and they said their local met called BS on the southern storm specifically because the HP was weakening and not in the ideal position (retrograding?). Way above my paygrade of amateur weather, but seems to make sense if the models are forecasting a less significant CAD event with a much deeper warm nose. We may have just needed to wait until the ducks were all on the pond to see it.