Hotair

Largo is in Pinellas right. .? Evac for zone A tonight and B and C tomorrow. If you are in those zones you should consider bugging out

Satellite has Ian as a 90 MPH hurricane now with a pressure of 976 mb almost Cat 2 . We should have two additional Hunter planes in the storm soon

It does but would be best (for the US) if it stayed over the island longer. In the current trajectory and speed it will be clear of land effects in short order.

New recon data for Ian shows flight level winds have increased to 79kt while ex. pressure has dropped to 977.0mb which os consistent with a deepening storm. Window for preparations in Havana and western Cuba is coming to a close soon. im in Lakeland now where I expect to ride out whatever comes.

Yep. My worst nightmare is unfolding. Had neighbor helping us with some sandbags. Will be leaving after rush hour to son’s house in Lakeland Everything wife and I could move is off the floor just in case we get lucky last minute and flooding is not what is expected. Frankly can’t see how we don’t get 2 to 4+ feet or more into the house as we have 10 ft elevation from SL -older house. Newer houses are all elevated in my area and have living areas about 10 or 12 feet above ground once I saw Jim Cantore land in Clearwater yesterday I knew the jig was up.

Unflagged 988.5 found. So we more than likely wake up to a CAT 1 in the morning

Prior 4 GFs runs all at 8pm Wednesday. The correction to the East is dramatic

@LopWx A strong cold front from Canada, battling out the warm moist air of Ian. The cold front slows down Ian a lot, which will allow for more storm surge, and tons of rain to be dumped on parts of Central and Western Florida

NHC not yet ready to shift cone further East.

000 WTNT34 KNHC 252357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...IAN STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS IN WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 80.8W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 80.8 West. Ian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower Florida Keys by Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated conditions. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft Florida Keys, FL including Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

I don’t think the euro has Ian as intense at this hour as it’s been found to be on recon dropsonde. I wonder how that will affect the euro model on the next run once that data gets absorbed?

Unfortunately, Ian strengthening and moving further North and East of cone , means Havana Cuba is in for a rough ride Monday night to Tuesday. I doubt their electricity infrastructure is any better than Puerto Rico’s

If Ian follows the euro model trajectory it will definitely have its name retired. Yet another “I” for posterity.

Latest recon at 989 should prompt NHC to issue a special advisory shortly upgrading Ian to a Cat 1 cane

I will be traveling inland to my son’s. Getting on road tomorrow

Great. And I wasn’t going to mention this but my neighbor had their policy non renewed by their ins co. I found out yesterday he decided to sit on it until next year because he was convinced the Hurricane threat was done for the year. ( his house is paid for). Now he can only buy insurance with a 15 day grace period meaning he is going commando into this storm. convective burst is much better organized now than earlier. I think we are going to start buzz sawing soon

Sections of road in my neighborhood in South Tampa become impassable by cars after a heavy rain fall lasting 20 minutes. If you throw the Bay waters at us during hurricanes we will have many homes flooded. I would love to see how the tide tables match up with the storm arrival. High tide could easily add 4+ feet to the surge

2 and a half to be safe. Probably don’t want to evacuate under major lightning storms. At least hillsborough schools have been cancelled now in preparation of storm shelters.

18z Icon almost bring Naples into LF

Same here but then again, they have most of the West Coast population centers covered with the cone as is. Perhaps they are waiting for a few more GFS runs to confirm the shift East

000 WTNT44 KNHC 252057 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The organization of Ian has not changed much since this morning. There have been some small bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm this afternoon, but the activity has not yet led to any notable changes in its structure. In fact, the most persistent convection has been in outer rainbands well to the northeast of the circulation near Jamaica. The SFMR wind data and adjusted flight-level winds from the earlier reconnaissance flights supported surface winds of 35-40 kt, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian later tonight. The center of Ian has jogged a bit northward this afternoon, but its longer-term motion is west-northwestward at 300/10 kt. A generally northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and early Tuesday as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or over western Cuba. From there, the track guidance still diverges at days 3-5 as Ian is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and UKMET models still lie on the eastern edge of the guidance and bring the center of Ian over the coast of west-central Florida, while the HWRF and HMON models are on the western side of the envelope and show Ian approaching the central Florida panhandle. Notably, the GFS has trended slightly eastward for the past few cycles, which has brought the multi-model consensus aids a bit eastward as well. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in this direction, but only on the order of 15-20 n mi in the extended range. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges, since uncertainty is still high and future adjustments may be required. Although the storm has yet to develop an inner core, the conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea appear very likely to support strengthening once it becomes better organized. Some dry environmental air may have limited convection today, but the GFS- and ECMWF-simulated satellite imagery indicate that deep convection will increase during the diurnal maximum period overnight. Then, significant strengthening is expected with low deep-layer shear and high oceanic heat content along the forecast track. There is still strong support for rapid intensification in the latest intensity guidance, and the NHC intensity forecast shows Ian becoming a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. This forecast remains close to the IVCN multi-model consensus, with some model aids including HCCA showing even higher peak intensities. Strong southwesterly shear develops over Ian by 72 h related to interaction with an upper-level trough, and the structure of the cyclone could significantly degrade before landfall given these hostile conditions. However, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle. Key Messages: 1. Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through the middle of the week. Additional flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, and Ian is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it is near western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of this week, but uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts remains higher than usual. Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of this week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Follow any advice given by local officials and closely monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.2N 80.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.3N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.2N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 23.0N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 24.8N 84.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 26.2N 84.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 28.3N 84.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...IAN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS IN WESTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 80.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 80.3 West. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman on Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected early Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower Florida Keys by Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and the Southeast Thursday, Friday and Saturday. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated conditions. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft Florida Keys, FL including Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN

the following models have Ian making landfall in Sarasota/St Pete/Tampa --ECMWF (Europe) --KMA (Korea) —JMA (Japan) --Icon (Germany) --Access-G (Australia) --UKMET Only the GFS(US) & CMC(Canada) have a landfall in the Big Bend to Panhandle

An eye could be forming ? 4:25 recon