Hotair

Has this GRAF model proved accurate previously ? My kids are in Gainesville and this would be catastrophic for the area there.

Some structural damage being reported in Cape Coral área now. Possible tornado activity

Jim Rosica @JimRosicaFL Now it's official -- All @WaffleHouse locations in Tallahassee and Crawfordville closing as Helene approaches https://tallahassee.com/story/news/hurricane/2024/09/26/first-waffle-house-in-tallahassee-closes-before-hurricane-helene/75392750007/ via @TDOnline

Sunshine Skyway bridge now closed.

Update from GRAF model

The IBM GRAF model has this storm headed on a more easterly track and making landfall towards the direction of Gainesville!

Starting to cook now

Graphic from NYT showing probabilities of damaging winds for different regions. Concerned this will downplay dangers as you often have damaging tornado events well outside the forecast track

Tide around Tampa beginning to show effects of storm

Given all possible outcomes, Helene’s forecasted high forward speed and track into the armpit is possibly the best anyone here in the west coast Florida could have hoped for. Hoping the next recon flights keep it pointed that way

First I hear of this term “Prandtl number amplification” Is this founded on solid science? If so, is it already baked In into the mainstream models ?

Tampa and neighboring areas have a real strong chance of breaking all-time storm surge records during this storm. Forecasts are +/- 2 ft

True

Wow I looked it up. 7 to 200 ft ASL. Learn something new everyday. Thought all of Florida was pretty much at sea level.

If Helene makes landfall as a Cat 4 as some anticipate it will be the 5th consecutive year we get a major cane striking the US

From an impact perspective would a more Easterly track away from Tally cause less storm surge issues for folks there? As the wind field would be predominantly pushing out to sea?

Very windy and drenching rain in Tampa now. Soil is going to be saturated soon not good

Model track guidance is adhering to the Fujiwara effect

Even the low end of those estimates are quite impactful.

Cuba radar is showing the eye of Helene emerging nicely now.

Nice graphic showing recent impactful Florida storms and how Helene sits much more West presently at similar latitudes. What is not yet clear is how the large wind field will compensate for this further West track in terms of overall impacts to the SW Florida coastline

At over 50 miles away from the coast of Cancun local reports show outages and many trees down. A reminder this is a large system that will have significant impacts perhaps even hundreds of miles from the coc here in Tampa I am just hoping the storm gets steered quickly up and away from the area, but realistically we know South Tampa will be a wet mess for weeks to come

Helene - CAT-TS 8 AM (EDT) Advisory Movement: NW @ 9 MPH Winds: 70 MPH Pressure: 979 MB Friends who are staying at St. George Island are leaving this morning and tell me the owners have not returned their messages (are away in Europe). The house is on pilings way high but their cars and other vehicles are parked below along with many of their things.