Hotair

Try as I can I still don’t see a NÉ component to motion on radar. Sort of straight North. Is there a loop that shows this better? I’m going by keys radar

I traveled to Lakeland to stay with our son. Looks like euro says I’m gonna have front row seats. Without storm surge of course, New evacs now issued for western Lee County (including Sanibel & Captiva). impacts could be MUCH bigger Venice, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers than had previously been anticipated. impacts begin tomorrow, worst tomorrow afternoon through Thursday morning.

I’ll take a Sarasota landing from these latest runs at this point. Especially if it comes in along near empty corridors and stays inland I mean it’s going to be a terrible storm any way you slice it. Might as well spare High cat 3 winds into Tampa Bay which has the highest population center of the entire west coast region.

Isla de La Juventud and Pinar del Rio are about to get a whopping when Ian makes landfall with close to Cat 3 strength. Electric utilities in that part of the island are as poor if not worse than what Puerto Rico has. Last cane in those areas power was not restored for several weeks.

Indeed. I mean total property damage would probably be much lower if it comes in hot well South of TB and goes inland than if it stays parallel to TB and churns water into the bay for hours. but my guess is that people South of Ft Meyers have not been too keen on preparations for a Major LF event

The 18z euro just reminded me of Charley in 2004

Recon finding 107 mph winds. This might get to Cat 3 by the 11 pm advisory and prior to landfall at Pinar Del Rio Cuba

Update: Tampa Bay International Airport to suspend operations at 5 p.m. on Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Ian per governor

Tampa intl airport says may begin to shut down operations in next 24 hours Update: Tampa Bay International Airport to suspend operations at 5 p.m. on Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Ian per governor

Geez. I can see from my outdoor cameras in my home in Tampa that it is raining hard right now ground is going to be soaked by the time Ian rains arrive

latest recon data shows that the pressure of Ian has continued to fall to about 966 mbar supporting the Cat 2 call by NHC NE quadrant is where the action is hottest. DMAX action tonight could goose it further. As is this is about 6 mb stronger than what NHC published at 5 pm

Recon flights are headed into Ian now. Always good to see Cuba allow NOAA to use its airspace to recon these storms.

Satellite probably suggested even higher perhaps?

From NHC discussion 5 pm 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials.

Eyewall is closed. If we luck out it will be in ERC mode when It makes an approach on the coast.

“National Hurricane Center director calls Ian forecast a "near worst-case scenario" for the Tampa area.” “This would be the storm of a lifetime for many Tampa Bay residents,” he added. for a long time I’ve admired the power of these beautiful storms. While I know they are destructive and deadly I still hold Nothing but awe. Looking at the visual on satellite today I have to say that Ian has more than earned my respect and if it goes on to destroy my home I will try not to be bitter or angry. A formidable cane is a thing of beauty for me. I’m sure I’m not the only one on this board who feels this way.

It’s bad enough that latest model runs took a further jog East. NHC incoming 5 pm will likely put TB dead center on their cone

What’s the over under that Ian gets retired after this week?

Largo is in Pinellas right. .? Evac for zone A tonight and B and C tomorrow. If you are in those zones you should consider bugging out

Satellite has Ian as a 90 MPH hurricane now with a pressure of 976 mb almost Cat 2 . We should have two additional Hunter planes in the storm soon

It does but would be best (for the US) if it stayed over the island longer. In the current trajectory and speed it will be clear of land effects in short order.

New recon data for Ian shows flight level winds have increased to 79kt while ex. pressure has dropped to 977.0mb which os consistent with a deepening storm. Window for preparations in Havana and western Cuba is coming to a close soon. im in Lakeland now where I expect to ride out whatever comes.

Yep. My worst nightmare is unfolding. Had neighbor helping us with some sandbags. Will be leaving after rush hour to son’s house in Lakeland Everything wife and I could move is off the floor just in case we get lucky last minute and flooding is not what is expected. Frankly can’t see how we don’t get 2 to 4+ feet or more into the house as we have 10 ft elevation from SL -older house. Newer houses are all elevated in my area and have living areas about 10 or 12 feet above ground once I saw Jim Cantore land in Clearwater yesterday I knew the jig was up.

Unflagged 988.5 found. So we more than likely wake up to a CAT 1 in the morning