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About Mdecoy

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    Newark. Delaware
  1. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    I think this upcoming week is crucial to the rest of the winter. If the flip seems to be coming together, might be able to step back from the ledge. If by the end of the week we start seeing the good old "Well not the start of Feb now, but maybe mid Feb" its time to think about jumping. When the "delay" stuff starts happening, only a fool wouldn't realize the models are just playing you.
  2. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    It feels like rain to snow use to work a lot more in the 90's than it does now. Same goes for a good front end thump of snow before a change over. We don't seem to do those anymore.
  3. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    I'd trade that stupid HECS any day for spreading out 30 inches of snowfall over the last 3 years. IMBY We got dry slotted and only ended up with 13 inches anyway. Then we just watched as it melted with nothing but torch. My panic has subsided, I think we get a 4-8 inch storm this year. I can accept that. It would be pretty record breaking if we didn't. But set the bar at 4-8, forget a big one, forget a good year, forget an average year. Set the bar at 4-8, and I think we will be happy. Ya know a nice little winter storm watch, a bit of a warning, some tracking, a jebwalk, maybe work gets cancelled. It will be fine, and if it doesn't, I;ll chase one into upstate NY. Its all good!
  4. Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc

    This one surprised me in a good way. Despite losing precip to warm temps it recovered and we got 1.5 inches, mostly on the grass with maybe a half inch on the road. So thats positive. Tough one for the models for sure. I guess the further east you went the warmer it was I know Monmouth county in NJ is showing some of the best returns but its rainy. But thats not a negative thing. I am looking forward to the rest of the winter, I think after our warm up things turn better and it seems very unlikely we escape this winter without at least a moderate event (4-8 inch type deal). Worst case, chase something, The weekend of the 27th/28th seems to be advertising something for the interior areas and maybe the coast.
  5. January Banter String

    I honestly just didn't see it as being negative. I mean I had been worried to death about precip, and I woke to find tons of that, which was basically rain. So certainly warranted an "unreal". But I will dial it back totally/log off. I guess things have changed around here; gone are the days randys tear IN beethoverns eye and legendary rants (his one after Snowquester was great)
  6. January Banter String

    The post I made in the obs forum was not the least bit negative. It was realistic. I am giving you my obs. Thinking we'd have a precip problem, but it ended up being a temp problem. I think you sudden sensitivity to this stuff is a bit odd to be honest. Suddenly you need a safe space to the smallest amount of negativity?
  7. Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc

    22z I just looked at still shows the 2 wave idea. I thought it accounted for virga? Either way, they called a 2 hour delay tomorrow for my job at APG, pretty shocking. So I am satisfied enough. I can remember times where there was 6 inches on the ground and they were like "eh, report on time". Things have definitely gotten much softer over the years.
  8. Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc

    FWIW (which is probably not much) The HRRR seems to bring the precip in in 2 waves, first one from the current band, and then it kind of tapes into the stuff south of the area and fills in the gap briefly. Looks very light either way.
  9. January Banter String

    Thanks! I tried, most people let you down. I don't really believe in long lasting friendship and love anymore. Its temporary. People change, things go wrong, life goes on. I guess if you are really lucky. Maybe. tracking snow in this area really isn't smart either if you just want disappointment and letdown.
  10. January Banter String

    Its not that love, family, friendships aren't more important, its that those areas of my life are a complete and total disaster, and when I can look at snow as being the one bright spot in a miserable existence and that doesn't work, its just enough to melt down.
  11. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    I agree!
  12. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    It crosses the line when it goes into the model discussion threads or in PMs. I myself am guilty of it in the model threads and will stop. But there is nothing wrong with it in a panic room thread. Its what its here for, its what we have done since the dawn of time. There is nothing wrong with venting. You seem to take issue with ALL venting. Like I said, we've been doing it for years and years, this is actually Very tame in comparison. The board owner, you know who, as has legendary rants on here. Some of which were so funny they still stick in my memory.
  13. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    No, we are getting screwed. If our neighbors were in the same boat as us then we could caulk it up to a bad pattern, but the storms have hit nearby areas and found ways to miss us, this one is particularly ridiculous. Its literally a huge snowhole planted right over the MA. Pattern stuff aside. That is a bon fide screw job.
  14. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    Spin how you wish, We are getting royally screwed here in the mid atlantic relative to our neighbors to the south and to the north. NJ coast basically has the same average yearly snowfall as DC and in this so called "Nina year" where we are suppose to be below average, they have already above average for snowfall. So I don't feel a valid justification is "this is normal its a nina year". I get it that this is what the pattern states. But we are still getting screwed, the coastal storm and now this crap storm were huge screwjobs for us.
  15. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    I am a bit surprised there aren't more meltdowns honestly. This is about as bad as it gets. Still the people claiming "this is normal". Everyone back in the day would be blowing their top. I can't deal with all this positive nonsense.