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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    The problem with NAM is on Tuesday it was also showing several inches for todays (Thursdays) event and as it got closer and closer that amount dwindled down to an inch or 2 which ended up a dusting for many of us closer to NYC
  2. NEG NAO
    I am still going with this 11 Weenie post attached I made yesterday which was only for NYC and local suburbs NOT Northern and Western suburbs - have just a light dusting here with a little icy slush on the east side of the Union/Middlesex County in NJ and temp is about 33 degrees now and forecasted to stay above freezing through daytime tomorrow last forecast I saw - so bare ground for the start of the weekend event which could end up similar to this one .........
  3. NEG NAO
    I am still going with this idea - Uptons forecast supports it
  4. NEG NAO
    most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread
  5. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro is now showing snow amounts in the NYC metro similar to what the GFS was coming up with
  6. NEG NAO
    CP NYC will find a way to measure close to 1 inch snow for each of the next 2 events and not out of the question for next weeks events as suppression is possible
  7. NEG NAO
    Both of these next 2 minor events in the immediate NYC metro look to have minor accumulations of 1 - 3 inches and with the second event on Sunday turning to rain and temps in the low 40's most areas around NYC and immediate suburbs will have little or no snow left on the ground after Monday IMO. Amazing how when we get close to these events they end up being no big deals.....
  8. NEG NAO
    we don't know exactly what is coming past day 2 because every one of these potential events are borderline for various reasons........
  9. NEG NAO
    Never ass/u/me.......
  10. NEG NAO
    yes - what these events remind me of is when you go to a restaurant and they first give you whatever after you sit down to munch on ( Thursdays Event) - then the waiter asks you to order your appetizer ( Weekend Event) then you order the main meal - ( next weeks first event) and then you order dessert -(next weeks second event) question here is will there be enough room left for dessert ? ( next weeks second event)
  11. NEG NAO
    Because it is a fast mover with borderline temps that will give us a similar event compared to many of the lighter events experienced the last couple of years - especially in the immediate metro that will melt away for the most past on Friday closer to the coast you get ....... 1- 3inch event possibly - BORING !
  12. NEG NAO
    12Z Euro
  13. NEG NAO
    thanks for proving my point about the long range GFS/GEFS suite of models nonsense
  14. NEG NAO
    The GFS/GEFS is usually wrong past days 5-7 - but then again every dog has its day
  15. NEG NAO
    If we have believed the GFS past 5-7 days this winter and it verified we would have had 10 feet of snow already
  16. NEG NAO
    12Z Canadian not that impressive through 10 days - this is more believable then the 12Z GooFuS model
  17. NEG NAO
    Middlesex/Union County NJ border at 11:50 A.M temp is 42 and not a trace of snow on the ground completely melted -its not melting up northern NJ yet ?
  18. NEG NAO
    True - I would cut the 06Z GFS totals in half IMO
  19. NEG NAO
    you really believe we will have back to back MECS or higher next week ?
  20. NEG NAO
    We only received a dusting here - you meant melted by this afternoon ? I wouldn't start any threads yet and the 6Z GFS is nonsense IMO - how many times this winter have we seen this kind of output on the GFS ? Just a couple of days ago it showed this similar solution and the next run it was cut in half or less totals
  21. NEG NAO
    0Z Euro in Fantasy Land Range similar to Canadian
  22. NEG NAO
    Fantasy Land - if it still shows this later in the week its for real......
  23. NEG NAO
    For less than 1 inch - no thread needed IMO -sorry - but the 18Z GFS has up to 3
  24. NEG NAO
    the decade ?
  25. NEG NAO
    that seems to be the trend happened to the 6th and 9th events
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