NEG NAO

he posted a Jan 30 GFS first then posted CMC for Feb 2nd - I was referring to the Jan 30th threat on the new GFS - the CNC at hour 144 is not as organized as the GFS BUT shows precip to our west with the approaching cold air outbreak

Upton : Mostly Sunny - mid 30's

still too far out to determine exactly how this is going to set up - no consistency in the Euro yet - different solution then last nights - complex to say the least.....

thats a good signal because GFS is usually wrong 10 days out........CMC is colder

Euro agrees with CMC and GFS early Feb storm threat

Good to see that HP in southeast Canada on CMC - GFS also shows a storm to open the month

NYC is represented by CP and its unexplained low snowfall measurements...........

we are stuck in a low precip pattern - we would have more snow already if we didn't have this dry non-amplified fast flow pattern the entire winter so far

with the MJO going neutral and into 8 -1-2 in February cutter pattern is less likely

They have to do an investigation on why CP always records lower snowfall totals then other areas in the city for the most part

today is only January 22 - it has snowed in NYC into April over 2 1/2 months left

IMO with the MJO going towards the neutral center soon for a week or so then forecasted by the Euro to enter phases 8 -1 -2 through mid-February there will be continued Arctic outbreaks and they will tend to interact with the southern jet which will not be as far south as recent days/weeks as the southeast ridge is not as suppressed- so storm threats will continue to be on the table and its impossible to predict which ones will be actual snowstorms around here -BUT IMO any sustained warming or any lake cutter patterns will not be happening the next few weeks.....the main challenge now is to break this drought pattern that has persisted all winter...

BUT what are the tracks of these clippers ???? I see on the GFS op only ones that pass north of us with little moisture here..........

Much below normal precip and drought conditions also is a reason for lack of snow around here.......with dry conditions into early FEB

This is rare and weird earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=bourbonstreet

Arctic blasts reaching all the way to the Gulf Coast rarely benefits our snowstorm chances up here.............we were lucky this past Sunday

Dry and cold here through at least middle of next week - January looks to end up Below Normal temps and much below normal precip as of todays model runs so far. Drought concerns will return if February starts out dry............

Hey thats what we do around here when we a frustrated ! Just wait to see the reaction if in a couple of days the Florida Panhandle has had more snow then NYC this winter so far.............

ever consider it was windy last night and some of the snow blew off the car top ?

where in Metuchen was this measured ? Could it be caused by local environmental influences or just a heavier local band of snow setup over Metuchen ? On radar last evening there seemed to be banding and dry slots near our area in Central NJ

What I meant is the 1.6 is questionable at best - why does Central Park seem to always measure one of the lowest totals ? Has anybody ever been to the site where they measure to witness this ?

unfortunately when people view the record books monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf for this event they will see 1.6 inches in NYC at Central Park

IMO starting next week there will be more opportunities as the pattern relaxes and the southern stream will be allowed to trend further north to interact with the constant Arctic outbreaks and the last week of January through the first half of February are historically "Prime Time" for snowstorms around here -IMO there will be enough cold air around to support this..........