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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    Don are you keeping track of how the models are actually performing so far to our south and west ?
  2. NEG NAO
    I didn't want to be that pessimistic
  3. NEG NAO
    shows how useless they are more then a few days out
  4. NEG NAO
    its nowcasting time - keep your eyes on the ball - monitor radar trends and various surface and upper level guidance - watching the models now arguing with each other so close to tonights event will lead you down the wrong road - as of 9:30 AM radar shows precip moving west to east across northern VA and southern delmarva back through Kentucky with little northward progression yet - frozen line is far south too across southern delmarva
  5. NEG NAO
    Northern Middlesex County north of the Raritan can have several inches of snow and southern Middlesex County can have next to nothing but they are considered 1 forecast zone...........
  6. NEG NAO
    That west to east banding across central NJ reminds me of what happened last Feb 16 -17 storm......
  7. NEG NAO
    agreed - this is an interesting event with watches for many - maybe should put strict limits of number of posts allowed daily for new members and everyone should only be allowed a certain number of posts a day.........so they don't hog the forum take a look at their total number of posts and see who is way over the average number considering how long they have been here
  8. NEG NAO
    Because as described in the title it includes sleet
  9. NEG NAO
    Just a reminder post the 24 HR snowfall maps now because of these multiple storms
  10. NEG NAO
    you are including sundays storm here is the 1st mid week totals
  11. NEG NAO
    The 0z Euro is NOT suppressed Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
  12. NEG NAO
    Upton is going all in on this weekend event - posted there is still a chance of warning level 6 inch snows in NYC Facebook
  13. NEG NAO
    Euro running soon for the tiebreaker......any predictions ?
  14. NEG NAO
    Never trust the 18Z GFS OP or when the GFS has big changes from one run to the next.......lets see if the GEFS agrees with the OP
  15. NEG NAO
    true - BUT its still early and a very complicated set up with multiple storms playing off one another influencing the next one and so on........and questions regarding strength and position of the HP's very critical IMO - also the configuration of the jet stream during all of this
  16. NEG NAO
    Nobody listened to me a couple days ago when I said to "curb your enthusiasm" and I got stuck with 11 weenies
  17. NEG NAO
    Canadian not a total miss but lighter snow
  18. NEG NAO
    Totally Suppresed on 0Z GFS
  19. NEG NAO
    Winter Storm Watch issued for Saturday Night into Sunday NYC Metro WSW from KOKX
  20. NEG NAO
    which will keep it all snow in NYC
  21. NEG NAO
    Too close for comfort this far out - for this too work for the NYC immediate metro the LP has to slide west to east south of the Mason-Dixon Line
  22. NEG NAO
    1-3 sounds good as of now -still say if it turns to rain or is sunny close to freezing or above for a couple days before the mid week event NYC metro will melt again -- what do you think ?
  23. NEG NAO
    of course anytime there is precip around the north colder environment is always favored for frozen - what I was downplaying was the immediate NYC metro and points slightly west ( eastern essex / passaic / union and east and south of the city
  24. NEG NAO
    lol - should have listened to me yesterday when I got all those weenies for downplaying todays and the weekend event - Shouldn't be using the Mesoscale NAM yet.......
  25. NEG NAO
    should only consider the NAM up to 60 hours after that it is less reliable - in fact maybe only 48 hours demonstrated by how it performed a couple of days out for todays event
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