KoalaBeer

Missed out on any squalls today but it's blowing good out there. Seems every bit as windy as when we had that high wind warning up not long ago. I've always been curious as why those warnings bust so much...what's the criteria again for High Wind Warning? Sustained at 40 with gusts to 58 if I remember correct? We never seem to hit that when issued a warning, at least in my location.

And just like that it’s over to mostly snow with huge wet flakes under the heavier echos. Nice to see but not expecting any accumulation.

Pingers here with a few big flakes mixing in.

As much as I love the idea of a good storm I could do without it next week. How it's easy to forget there are still people up here in Andover/Lawrence without there heat turned back on from the gas explosions. I imagine any storm is just going to be a set back for them completing the work. Hopefully the mountains get in on some action later in December because they got a good base up there. Riding conditions on Saturday were phenomenal and I don't think I ever left the trees. We can score here later in the season.

Thunderstorm on Nantucket?

Measured just over 1.5" before I left for work at 9:40 AM. Despite it snowing at a good clip out there it's not really stacking up here at all.

Rain and 33.6 here. I’m sure it’s ripping on that ridge the other side of town though.

Go hike up around old Methuen ski area which sits behind Forest Lake. It gains some elevation pretty quick and you can see were the toe ropes once were. The tree damage up there after last years paste job was phenomenal. I go and hike the dog up there after snowstorms all the time. Hoping we can cash in on a few inches tonight up here.

Was going to say I can pretty much drive a golf ball to NH from my house in Methuen! Welcome to the neighborhood though. I've been living here 24 years and it's an awesome spot for getting the jack. Can't wait to hit the slopes with these early season storms delivering the goods to the resorts!

Could this be one of those exit 47 specials you guys were talking about last week with rain in Andover while its pounds snow here in Methuen?

10:58 AM Radar scan.

I had to run out and drain the pool in it! Brief spin up out by the Lynn area though? Impressive couplet on radar velocity for a few frames.

Unfortunately I'm hearing reports of 3 fatalities in Lawrence through a second hand source. I'm always skeptical of second hand sources but they were spot on with the fatality just reported from the chimney on the car and the girl getting pulled out of the house with severe leg injuries before it was reported. Here's a screen grab from a video I took off mass ave but then I had to put the phone away. Way to hectic with first res-ponders flying by me to not be concentrating on the situation at hand.

If it makes ya feel better I didn’t see anything in the immediate vicinity of Merrimack. I drove right by most of what I saw was closer to Mass ave heading towards Lawrence. It was really bad.

Explosions so far according to Mass state police. Falls in line with how many houses I saw.

Wow I'm still shaking. I was glued to following Florence but I was in North Andover as crap hit the fan. I got stuck in Lawrence getting home with homes on fire every street I turned down. It reeked of gas everywhere and no one was inside there homes. I breathed a huge sigh of relief when I got on the highway despite the wall of traffic.

This right here! It's amazing to me how much more efficient these storms are at mixing winds to the surface in a strengthening phase. Looking better on satellite for sure and now starting to come into view of long range radar.

Disgusting especially if the eye barely manages to make it onshore. The coastal impacts are going to be extreme with most of those.

Definitely curious to see what Euro ensembles show. Does any have the 00z ones available I don't think I ever saw them.

Ya it's kind of crazy that a run like that could be almost worse case but if the stall trends even further offshore it could be an improvement.

Anyone have the high res on the Euro? How close does the eye get before that drift to the SW? Either way you cut it though that is a brutal scenario.

Lets sure hope not. The Euro 12Z ensembles were pretty eye opening. More tightly clustered and less recurves. I'm waiting for tonights 0z runs and tomorrows 12z which should get some extra data into them.

Most guidance has trended slightly north today. FV3-GFS run might be the craziest model run I've ever seen. Hit's around Wilmington around Cat3/4 intensity, stalls, loops out back over the water, restrengthens again just to slam right back into the Wilmington area. Regardless CMC and Euro still show hits but slightly north of previous runs I can't see it making a run at FL at this point. Edit: I say that and HWRF has it sitting right off of FL at end of the run. Prob not best to use it for track however.

Having a hard time believing the past two GFS runs although I wish it wasn't that way. Wasn't it the very last to shows the more westerly track on Irma when all the other guidance was pretty locked on? Looks like the 12Z Euro and FV3 are both going to show landfalls around the SC/NC border.