KoalaBeer

Structure has greatly improved the past few hours. Lorenzo is a fighter.

Michael

Wow Lorenzo is really impressive for it's location and the time of year, but I can't help to be a little skeptical of it being a Cat 5 right now. That eye is just a little to ragged for me despite the warm eye temp. Compared to hurricane Michael that wasn't upgraded until post season analysis...I just don't know if it fits the bill. Perhaps NHC not afraid to be a little aggressive considering it's in the middle of the Atlantic right now. Also of note Michael had higher ADT estimates but we had much more recon data throughout the storm. Lorenzo

You have to manually set text back to black font right now. The board is defaulting to white font on a white background haha. Are my posts even showing up on here? Scroll up and let me know please. lol...

These Captains should stop sailing into the eye of major hurricanes....People on twitter are saying NOAA hurricane hunters assisted with the search and rescue. https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo

FYI this airs at 7:30 EST on The Weather Channel.

Big ridge on euro but trough coming across the central conus will eventually turn it. Also notably weakens TD 10 as it approaches the Bahamas.

Fun conditions at this Buoy! 39ft wave height earlier this morning. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011

Posted this over in the Dorian thread but figured I'd post it up here as well. Some wild footage from Hope Town via Jim Edds. Canada sure looks like it's going to get whacked. Quite the impressive structure for where Dorian is in the Atlantic. I'll probably take a drive up to Salisbury beach tomorrow to at least check out the surf.

According to James Reynolds he probably didn't. If I recall correctly they have been on some chases together in the WPAC so it's about as a reliable source we can get at this point.

Aerial footage coming out of Abaco now is pretty unreal.

Dorian racking up the ACE for the Atlantic and still has a way to go. Should join the pretty exclusive list of Hurricanes producing more then 40 ACE. Year Storm# Name Dates TC Active Max Wind (kts) MSLP (mb) Named Storm Days Hurricane Days Major Hurricane Days Accumulated Cyclone Energy 2019 1 ANDREA 5/20-5/21 35 1006 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4 2019 2 BARRY 7/11-7/14 65 993 3.50 0.25 0.00 3.3 2019 3 CHANTAL 8/21-8/21 35 1009 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.5 2019 4 DORIAN 8/24-9/3 160 910 10.00 6.00 4.00 35.0 2019 5 ERIN 8/28-8/28 35 1005 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4

Ya it would have been close I think. Plenty of videos out there that seem to show a 20ft plus storm surge and thats what the NHC put out in there warnings as well. Hopefully he checks in at some point today. Here's the map I pulled the elevation from.

Here is the location on google maps if I'm right. https://www.google.com/maps/place/26°32'23.0"N+77°04'47.0"W/@26.5402011,-77.0780259,2958m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d26.5397222!4d-77.0797222

From what I've gathered this is where he was located. Roughly ~25ft ASL. Looks like a solid structure but appears like its only 1 story tall. He's on this persons search listed as not found but who knows who reported that. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M9wVx_Krgzb2cycTOGF4ZsS5JDrvRGwggCblUGtq6II/mobilebasic "Morgerman, Josh (Central Abaco Primary School, Marsh Harbour, @iCyclone)" I'd take it with a grain of salt for now. Josh knows what he is doing and like you said in previous extreme storms he's gone days without contact.

Looking at the ensembles it looks highly unlikely. It is just really tough to sneak a storm into New England coming up from the southeast US like that. I can see Canada happening though.

Station went down before the worst hit. https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/yesterday-93062.html?areaCode=000&groupCode=65

I'm not so sure about that. The radar suggests they only clipped the outer part of the eye wall. I'm sure it was still a rough ride but not as hellacious as that inner eye wall.

How about that for a trochoidal wobble.

Impressive eye on radar. http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/radar_main.php?adta=vsk

Fani is putting on a hell of a show right before landfall CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.0 / 935.7mb/115.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.0 6.2 7.2

Not looking good. Look at all the people trapped on roofs escaping the surge/flooding. https://mobile.twitter.com/miguel_carreiro/status/1107695723506737154

In a similar conundrum myself here in Methuen. 28.3" here and 27.3" in Dracut on the NWS statement and the Methuen one was a trained spotter. I sit right on the line and couldn't find anywhere around my house over 19 inches with 10 plus measurements taken. Definitely interesting.

What would you say you have on the ground? Saw on the news 15" in Dracut but I got 9.5" here in Methuen right on the Dracut line. Been sitting barely outside that heavy band all day but really starting to rip now. Wondering if the gradient is that tight from here to Nashua.