KoalaBeer

FYI this airs at 7:30 EST on The Weather Channel.

Can't blame the NHC as it was an extremely difficult forecast with Mario so close by, but what an insane track change with Lorena in just one advisory.

Big ridge on euro but trough coming across the central conus will eventually turn it. Also notably weakens TD 10 as it approaches the Bahamas.

Fun conditions at this Buoy! 39ft wave height earlier this morning. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011

Posted this over in the Dorian thread but figured I'd post it up here as well. Some wild footage from Hope Town via Jim Edds. Canada sure looks like it's going to get whacked. Quite the impressive structure for where Dorian is in the Atlantic. I'll probably take a drive up to Salisbury beach tomorrow to at least check out the surf.

According to James Reynolds he probably didn't. If I recall correctly they have been on some chases together in the WPAC so it's about as a reliable source we can get at this point.

Aerial footage coming out of Abaco now is pretty unreal.

Dorian racking up the ACE for the Atlantic and still has a way to go. Should join the pretty exclusive list of Hurricanes producing more then 40 ACE. Year Storm# Name Dates TC Active Max Wind (kts) MSLP (mb) Named Storm Days Hurricane Days Major Hurricane Days Accumulated Cyclone Energy 2019 1 ANDREA 5/20-5/21 35 1006 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4 2019 2 BARRY 7/11-7/14 65 993 3.50 0.25 0.00 3.3 2019 3 CHANTAL 8/21-8/21 35 1009 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.5 2019 4 DORIAN 8/24-9/3 160 910 10.00 6.00 4.00 35.0 2019 5 ERIN 8/28-8/28 35 1005 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.4

Ya it would have been close I think. Plenty of videos out there that seem to show a 20ft plus storm surge and thats what the NHC put out in there warnings as well. Hopefully he checks in at some point today. Here's the map I pulled the elevation from.

Here is the location on google maps if I'm right. https://www.google.com/maps/place/26°32'23.0"N+77°04'47.0"W/@26.5402011,-77.0780259,2958m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d26.5397222!4d-77.0797222

From what I've gathered this is where he was located. Roughly ~25ft ASL. Looks like a solid structure but appears like its only 1 story tall. He's on this persons search listed as not found but who knows who reported that. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M9wVx_Krgzb2cycTOGF4ZsS5JDrvRGwggCblUGtq6II/mobilebasic "Morgerman, Josh (Central Abaco Primary School, Marsh Harbour, @iCyclone)" I'd take it with a grain of salt for now. Josh knows what he is doing and like you said in previous extreme storms he's gone days without contact.

Looking at the ensembles it looks highly unlikely. It is just really tough to sneak a storm into New England coming up from the southeast US like that. I can see Canada happening though.

I saw a few small branches down on the west side of town around forest/pelham st along with some quick flash flooding that quickly subsided. Nothing big that I saw though. It was a fun storm, tons of lightning and some brief hail as well.

Ya I spotted a little rotation. Pea size hail in Methuen.

I should get it good here shortly.

Watching a huge fire looks like it could maybe be at Lawrence airport. 125 is closed down completely and girlfriend said they are calling in hazmat on the scanner. Edit: sounds like it’s actually the trash / recycling plant according to a cop I just talked with.

Station went down before the worst hit. https://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/yesterday-93062.html?areaCode=000&groupCode=65

I'm not so sure about that. The radar suggests they only clipped the outer part of the eye wall. I'm sure it was still a rough ride but not as hellacious as that inner eye wall.

How about that for a trochoidal wobble.

Little bit of rotation just SW of Providence but nothing strong enough to be TOR warned yet.

Seems like I’ve been right on the edge of the rain all day.

Actually doesn't look that bad right now, I could see a PTC being issued but still isn't going to develop more then a TD. Any impacts are going to be roughly the same as already advertised. Edit: No PTC but odds up to 60% now on the NHC update.