cardinalland

the prevailing synoptic pattern of this winter so far feels quite similar to the second half of last winter

1-2022 was teens in new haven at least although drier air appears to be approaching the western edge of CT, I see signs of backfill.

to be fair fujiwara is a pretty hard dynamic to work out, this setup was never gonna be an easy one

every single site in the nyc micronet is at 99+ right now. 3 99F locations and the remaining 18 locations are at 100+.

i don't think so lol, i don't have a station now but most of the ones near me are at 99 or 100

KNYC hits 99. honestly i'm in the neighborhood and I think that's p accurate for our high so far. highest temp at the park since 2012.

it's clouded up here in manhattan. i think we're done heating for today at about 96F near me. see you back here tomorrow

data from new haven airport KHVN. sea breeze has arrived there already.

jfk currently 90/79 with a heat index of 106. and it’s not even 9am yet

high of 86F, low of 74F Aug 1944 had an average high of 88.0F, Aug 1988 had an average high of 87.0F

15/6/3

I had some free time today and decided to correlate Atlantic ACE with temperatures around the world for the month of May (which, over oceans, roughly correspond with sea surface temperatures.) One can see a strong positive influence from sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the East Atlantic, Labrador Sea (hmm) and tropical West Pacific/Maritime Continent. Now there's definitely a lot of noise in here, but I found it helpful for my analysis. I also produced temperature correlation coefficients for number of TS/H/MH (didn't differ too much from this) and precipitation correlation coefficients (pretty much just noise, no trend.)

my analysis... Factors in favor of a more intense hurricane season: - warm Caribbean and waters surrounding Florida - warm West Pacific and Maritime Continent - negative PDO - positive OHC anomalies around Caribbean and loop current Factors in favor of a less intense hurricane season: - a cool Tropical East Atlantic - some modelling showing convergence aloft over Atlantic during hurricane season Slightly above average sounds right to me. Things aren't screaming hyperactive like 2024 but the factors are slightly in favor of more storms. I'm feeling more homegrown seasons this season... not so many Cape Verde long trackers. Maybe near average ACE but slightly above average storm numbers. I'll write a storm # prediction in the thread at some point.

just got to stand on my porch saying "we needed this" LFG

i think we should spring forward 3 hours when DST begins and stay there