CheeselandSkies

FWIW, GFS (Pivotal) has most of WI getting 15" - 20" through 240 hours (depending on whether you use 10:1 or Kuchera). Euro only has 10:1 on the free version but it has 8"-9" with the exception of an inexplicable N-S screw zone from about Marengo, IL to Lake Winnebago. I think it's safe to say that, all-important details aside, the zzzzzzzzzz pattern is over for most of us.

I'll take a last 3/28 do-over without the early crudvection...and without the "Safer at Home" order issued like 3 days earlier.

I remember the thread for those. Also wasn't what he described basically all of Jan-Feb 2014?

I always thought of northern Alabama as part of the Tennessee Valley region, is the Birmingham area too far south? As @jaxjagman pointed out, the Southeastern States forum tends to be dominated by Carolinas and perhaps Florida/coastal GA discussion. The heart of Dixie Alley seems to kind of get glossed over on this board apart from the huge events like 4/27/11.

Nice of La Nina to finally show up.

Good, chip away at that severe drought area in the West. Chase season seems to be such a fine line between too dry = too much EML (everything cap busts) and too wet = not enough EML (storms go up in messy clusters at or before noon). Thankfully this Nina winter, despite its recent long dull stretch, does not seem to be trending toward the extreme Midwest dryness of 2011-'12.

Upgraded to slight. After downtrending quite a bit from some ominous longer range model solutions, the mesoscale has swung the ceiling for today's threat modestly back in the other direction (rather like the accompanying Midwest/western Great Lakes winter storm). @andyhb posted a sounding elsewhere showing a significant EML on today's 12Z Shreveport sounding, the type which could move problematic should they accompany later systems that hold together better with eastward extent.

This ain't 2008 or 2011...weather just doesn't do cool **** in the midsection of the country anymore, whether winter or severe, even with a La Nina. * Unless it's a historic derecho that just happens without any sort of lead time from the models and thus from the forecasting enterprise.

Seems like less outside my window.

Yeah not impressed. Roads/parking lot/parked cars are mostly clear. Was anticipating a 2-3"er at some point this weekend.

Which is why I don't remember that winter being so impressive, just miserable f**king cold for way too long without a break.

My ideal April day is 74/68 with a high risk of severe thunderstorms. When has that happened in this region in the last 20 years?

Remember when the Euro showed something happening, you sat up and took notice?

2014 wasn't bad considering the slow start (although frustrating for me since I missed the Pilger family by an hour and targeted Iowa the following day, but at least the opportunity was there). There were a number of high risks in 2001 but they generally busted. 2017 was meh, but actually one of the better post-2015 seasons, sadly. The event of the year locally happened before I was ready for it (February 28th).

Great, down to a 4/27/11's worth (give or take a hundred) of deaths per day and that'll be great progress. This whole thing has really made weather seem a lot less awe-inspiring (that combined with the extended period of atmospheric suckitude in the central CONUS).

You know it's bad when Angry posts something that makes sense.

About as stark a contrast as you can get between those two sets of analogs. I sure as hell don't know what to make of it. Granted ENSO isn't the only large-scale driver of severe weather potential but it'd be much more confidence-inspiring to see things leaning more 1974/2008/2011-ish than 2006/09/12/18, although the line seems rather fine. Also, at least anecdotally, 2012 behaved nothing like the other years in that group being extremely warm and dry throughout the central CONUS from March through about September. Also, shouldn't this be "2021 ENSO" by now? Seeing as we skipped over 2020.

Which one did you get?

Finally coming down here, pavement and parked cars lightly coated.

Wasn't it supposed to be snowing by now?

Still cold enough to make my knuckles bleed...and not a one day warm enough for this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2008_tornado_outbreak

I'mma need it to not snow on Thursday, k? I've got Wed-Friday off this week and I had planned some travel, but as a rule I don't drive when snow is falling unless absolutely necessary.

Very interesting article from New York magazine. I've been dead-set opposed to any suggestion that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from anything other than a natural spillover event, because the insinuation that it was lab-created in China whether intentionally as a bioweapon, or by accident has almost from the beginning been used as a blame-shifting excuse by the ***** admin and its MAGAhead sycophants. However, this article goes into great depth about the risks of so-called "Gain-of-function" research and makes a plausible case that an accidental release at the Wuhan Institute of Virology could have been the final link in a chain that began with a bat coronavirus that infected its first humans (through massive overexposure, and couldn't transmit between humans at the time) all the way back in 2012, in southern China hundreds of miles from Wuhan. I'm not saying it's convinced me, but it's certainly opened my mind a little more to the possibility. Make sure you have ample time and some popcorn, it's a lengthy read. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html

I have at times found myself driving in snow when none was in the forecast, pulled up my radar app and gone "WTF?! There's nothing here."

The equivalent (or more) of a 9/11 or about 2 Titanic's worth of deaths in this country every day from this one cause (or in weather terms, about 1 1/2 Hurricane Katrinas or 8-9 4/27/11s) but they're mostly elderly and probably would have died within 10 years anyway so sure, no big deal.