CheeselandSkies

I always found it an interesting stroke of "luck" that the CONUS had two Cat 4+ landfalls in the span of four years, each of which at the time was the costliest U.S. hurricane (Hugo and Andrew), in what was supposedly a "down" period of activity (you also had Bob in there as well, and Iniki in the Pacific). Then the U.S. went 12 years without a major (100kt+) hurricane landfall during an "up" period, after the assault of Charley, Francis, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma from 2004-'05. Now we seem to be in another burst of activity, with Harvey, Irma, Michael, Laura and Ida from 2017 onwards (not to mention numerous weaker hurricanes and tropical storms in that timespan).

One of the better model wars between the Euro and GFS we've seen in some time; with most recent Atlantic TCs they've either mostly been in lockstep apart from subtle differences (as with storms like Ida) or both been garbage. Both sticking to their respective guns thus far...

This year's list has been good for memes/pop culture references, especially recently. You had Peter (Griffin)/Peter Rose Peter & Rose dissipating (Petered out/Rose..bud) There's also a locomotive in The Railway Series/Thomas the Tank Engine & Friends named "Peter Sam."

I'm surprised it's beating the "south=weaker" drum, since the more southerly track will put 18/Sam through the warmest possible water in front of it.

Peter vs. the shear:

Yep. West side as well.

@madwx Coming right at us.

All warnings south of northern Sauk dropped for now, we'll see what those segments in Grant/Iowa/Lafayette do.

Gadzoiks. ...up in the woods, par for the course.

Back to 5% in an early-release 20Z, but only for portions of the north woods.

Still way better than me at severe weather forecasting (I should hope so because they get paid to do it), but even I find myself scratching my head at more and more of their calls in recent years. When and why did they go so far downhill? Just anecdotally (not looking at any actual verification stats, which will probably prove me wrong, lol), seems like they were better in the 2000s/early 2010s despite the advances in modeling that have been made since then.

....annnnnnd back down to 2% at 1630. SPC giving me whiplash.

Up to 5% tor at the 13Z. This strong FROPA was on my radar (so to speak) at longer ranges but I admit I kind of tuned it out once it got into Day 4-8 range and SPC said the strongest winds aloft and support for ascent would lag behind the warm sector. I haven't looked at any models myself yet so I can't say if that's changed in some fashion or if they're just hedging their bets.

Surprise slight risk cropped up this morning, although I don't have high expectations for it.

Too bad it's going to be a closed low with the strong flow aloft lagging the warm sector (per SPC).

1995-96 and then again '98-'99 were really the only years like that. Up through 1994 were inactive years save the lone standout cyclones in certain years (Bob, Andrew). 1995 also didn't really have any significant U.S. landfall threats from Cape Verde hurricanes, with Luis and Marilyn striking the LAs before recurving and only home-grown Opal making U.S. landfall at 100kt+. 1996 had Bertha, Edouard, Fran and Hortense. 1997 was quiet, 1998 had Bonnie, Danielle and Georges, as well as quick recurvers Ivan and Jeanne (the second-to-last use of those names!), the infamous Mitch being a Caribbean brew. 1999 had Cindy, Floyd and Gert.

Well this season may not be playing out exactly like us weenies had anticipated, but just like last season, just about everything is making landfall, most of it in the CONUS.

Fine. Excessive speed far beyond the limits of what the road was designed for.

Excessive speed sounds reckless to me.

09/0Z GFS holds serve, although soundings aren't that impressive the synoptic pieces are there with a surface low near the WI/IA/IL confluence at 21Z Monday afternoon and a belt of spring-like 40-50kt WSW-SW flow at 500mb. Edit: On the 06Z, the area of most interest is moved north into WI, beautiful shear profile along the warm front but the capping looks stout at 21Z.

Regarding next Monday, 18Z GFS took a big nosedive with verbatim regional severe potential vs. 12Z, but the pieces are there. It's just a question of will they come together and where? Edit: For reference, a 12Z forecast sounding for a point not far from the 8/9 tornadofest, if not a tad further east/uncomfortably close to the Chicago 'burbs.

Looking ahead... August decided to act like May for us, so Sept. gonna act like June? I'm all for it.

Will anyone remember Larry except hardcore wx weenies? Doubtful.

Watch issued for SC/SE WI including Dane County...which the line was already most of the way through at the time. Rather ominous shelf cloud and some CG lightning came through here just before 11:00.